The data release calendar is reasonably light today and tomorrow, but US CPI-inflation (April) and UK GDP (Q1) are both due for release on Friday. There is also a fair degree of central bank activity this week, with a number of policy members in the US (including Chairperson Powell), UK and Eurozone due to speak. Moreover, tomorrow the ECB will release the minutes of its April meeting while the RBNZ is expected to cuts its policy rate 25bp.
Tuesday 7th May
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC members Cunliffe and Haldane to speak. While the Monetary Policy Council kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% last week (in line with expectations), its tone was borderline hawkish. Governor Carney argued that a few rate hikes may be appropriate in the event of an orderly Brexit and markets will be looking for signs that the more hawkish MPC members – such as Haldane – may be willing to vote for a 25bp rate hike.
United States: FOMC members Kaplan and Quarles to speak.
Wednesday 8th May
United Kingdom: BRC retail sales monitor (April).
New Zealand: RBNZ monetary policy meeting. At its April meeting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said that going forward a rate cut was more likely than a rate hike, the only major central bank to have so far taken such a dovish position. The consensus forecast is that it will cut its policy rate 25bp to 1.50%.
Eurozone: German industrial output (March). This data point is perhaps of less importance (to markets at least) now that Q1 GDP data for the Eurozone have been released.
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Ramsden to speak.
Eurozone: ECB to release minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. The minutes should provide further clarification as to the ECB’s view of growth and inflation and the Eurozone and its monetary policy stance going forward. The ECB’s position at present is that it will not hike its policy rates this year.
Thursday 9th May
United Kingdom: Growth in the volume of retail sales hit a three-year high of 1.5% qoq in Q1, thanks in part to rising growth in aggregate weekly wages.
United States: Federal Chairperson Powell to speak. The Fed made clear at its policy meeting last week that it was a in a “wait-and-see” mode, with little inclination to hike or cut rates at this juncture and Powell is likely to confirm this neutral stance.
United States: Trade balance in goods & services (March). The trade deficit narrowed to a 7-month low of $49.4bn in February but this will have been little comfort to US President Trump who has vowed to slash the United States’ trade deficit, including with China.
United States: FOMC members Bostic and Evans to speak.
Friday 10th May
Eurozone: ECB board members Lautenschlaeger and Coeure to speak.
United Kingdom: GDP (Q1, preliminary data). The consensus forecast – which the Bank of England reportedly shares – is that GDP growth rebounded to 0.5% qoq from 0.2% qoq in Q4 2018. However, growth in Q1 may have been boosted by a one-off increase in inventories ahead of the original Brexit date of 29th March and the more pertinent question is thus, how UK economic growth fared in Q2.
United States: CPI-inflation (April). The consensus forecast is that both headline and core CPI-inflation edged higher to 2.1% yoy from respectively 1.9% yoy and 2.0% yoy in March. This would nevertheless mean that both measures of CPI-inflation remained in their relatively narrow one-year ranges and shore up the Fed’s current neutral monetary policy stance.
