There are a number of key macro data points next week, with in particular May figures for US CPI-inflation (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday) likely to grab markets’ attention. The UK is due to release April numbers for GDP and the labour market while in Australia the much-followed labour market data are due for release on Thursday. On the policy front, RBA deputy governors due to speak on Wednesday may provide some clarity on the central bank’s policy rate path while the Swiss National Bank holds its policy meeting on Thursday.
Monday 10th June
United Kingdom: Monthly GDP (April). While this monthly data series tends to be volatile, as the ONS points out, it has gained market attention. GDP growth slowed from 0.5% mom in January to 0.2% mom in February and -0.1% mom in March, partly due to the counter-effect of rapid stock-building in the run-up to the original Brexit date of 31st March. The NIESR forecasts that GDP growth slowed to 0.4% qoq in Q2 from 0.5% qoq in Q1.
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC Member Saunders to speak.
Tuesday 11th June
Australia: NAB Business Confidence (May)
United Kingdom: Labour market data (April). While the decade-low unemployment rate of 3.8% has grabbed the headlines, real weekly wages fell 0.8% in February-March and were down 1% from October, which is likely holding back consumer demand and UK economic growth
Wednesday 12th June
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governors Kent and Ellis to speak. Markets will be looking for further guidance as to whether last week’s RBA rate cut was a case of “one and done” or the beginning of an easing cycle.
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Draghi to speak.
United States: CPI-inflation (May). There is a growing concern that reasonably low US inflation is structural and not just temporary and that Fed rate cuts may therefore fail to materially push up inflation. Core CPI-inflation has been in a tight 2.0-2.2% range since last August and the consensus forecast is that it was unchanged at 2.1% yoy in May.
Thursday 13th June
Australia: Labour market data (April). The RBA has made clear that the performance of the Australian labour market was a key input in its thinking on rates. The Australian economy created a respectful 59,000 jobs in February-April but only 34,700 were full-time jobs.
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank policy meeting and press conference. The SNB is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at -0.75% and the question is whether it follows the ECB’s lead by also turning more dovish to reflate lacklustre domestic economic growth.
Eurozone: Industrial output (April).
Friday 14th June
United States: Retail sales (May). Despite rising US consumer confidence, retail sales rose only 0.4% (in real terms) between February and April, with flat-lining aggregate weekly payrolls likely acting as headwind to consumer demand. Nevertheless the consensus forecast is that nominal retail sales rose 0.6% mom in May.
