The macro data calendar is very light this week, with the notable exception of the release of Eurozone PMI data for August on Thursday. Markets will likely focus on central banks, with the RBA, ECB and Federal Reserve all due to release the minutes of their recent policy meetings. Importantly, Fed Chairperson Powell is due to speak on Friday at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium.
Monday 19th August
No tier-one data or central bank meetings
Tuesday 20th August
Australia: Minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The RBA left its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% at its meeting on 6th August but left the door wide open for further rate cuts, pointing in particular to the importance of developments in the labour market.
Wednesday 21st August
United States: Minutes of Federal Reserve policy meeting. The Fed cut its policy rate 25bp, broadly in line with expectations, at its meeting on 31st July. While Fed Chairperson Powell did not exclude further rate cuts, he was seemingly less dovish than expected and US equity markets have since been very volatile with a bias to the downside. The release of this meeting’s minutes may provide greater clarity as to what variables the Fed will focus on when deciding whether to cut rates again,
Thursday 22nd August
Eurozone: Composite PMI (August, preliminary data). This forward-leading indicator of economic activity slowed to 51.5 in July from 51.8 in Q2 and analysts forecast a further slowdown to 51.2 in August. If correct, this would suggest that Eurozone GDP growth, which slowed to 0.2% qoq in Q2 from 0.4% in Q1, may have remained unchanged in Q3.
Eurozone: Minutes of European Central Bank policy meeting. The ECB has kept its policy rates unchanged but President Draghi, whose term expires at end-October, has been talking up the possibility of the ECB cutting rates and/or resuming its Quantitative Easing program. The release of its 25th July meeting minutes may provide an insight as to the support within the ECB Board for an easing of monetary policy.
New Zealand: Retail sales (Q2).
Friday 23rd August
United States: Fed Chairperson Powell is due to give a speech on the challenges for monetary policy at the central bank’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. Markets will be paying attention to the tone of his speech, particularly following the release of some decent US macro data last week.
Sunday 25th August
New Zealand: Trade balance (July)
