The Eurozone and US are due to release key inflation data on Friday, with the US also scheduled to publish durable goods orders figures today and trade data and the second GDP reading on Thursday. The German Ifo business climate index as well as labour market and inflation data may provide further colour as to whether the Eurozone’s largest economy was in recession in the second and third quarters.
Monday 26th August
Eurozone: German Ifo Business Climate Index (August). German GDP contracted 0.1% qoq in Q2, according to preliminary data, and the Bundesbank has warned that GDP may contract further in Q3, implying that the German economy may have been in recession. The Ifo index has been on a downtrend since September and analysts forecast a further fall in August to 95.1 from 95.7 in July, which if correct would increase the odds that Germany’s economy remained very weak in Q3.
United States: Durable goods orders (July)
Tuesday 27th August
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence (August). Consumer confidence has remains relatively buoyant despite the domestic economic backdrop of slowing economic growth
Wednesday 28th August
No tier-one macro data or policy events scheduled
Thursday 29th August
Eurozone: German labour market and CPI-inflation data (August, preliminary data).
United States: GDP (Q2, second reading). US GDP growth slowed to 2.1% qoq annualised in Q2 from 3.1% in Q1, according to the first reading. Analysts forecast the second reading to show a small downward revision to 2.0% qoq.
United States: Goods trade balance (July). There has been no discernible trend improvement in the US trade balance, which recorded a $74.2bn deficit in June, and this has fuelled US President Trump’s ongoing trade war with China and other major US trading partners.
Friday 30th August
Australia: Building approvals and private sector credit (July)
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (August). This lead indicator for Swiss economic activity has been range-bound year-to-date (93-97) but this has not stopped the Swiss Franc from rallying on the back of safe-haven flows.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (August, preliminary). Headline CPI-inflation slowed to a multi-year low of 1.0% yoy in July while core CPI-inflation was a smidge lower at 0.9% yoy. Low Eurozone inflation has prompted a debate within the ECB as to whether it should revise its inflation targets to somehow boost inflation expectations.
United States: Personal income, spending and PCE inflation (July). Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Inflation is one of the Federal Reserve’s favoured measures of inflation. This measure was a modest 1.6% yoy in June, which at the margin may have pushed the Fed to cut rates 25bp at its 31st July meeting. Analysts forecast an uptick to 1.7% yoy in July which if realised may marginally eat into markets’ expectations of another 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s September policy meeting.
