The macro data and events calendar is very light from Monday to Wednesday although Brexit-related developments may change that picture. Moreover, there are two key Eurozone events on Thursday – the release of preliminary PMI data for October and the ECB policy meeting (Draghi’s last).
Monday 21st October
United Kingdom: Meaningful parliamentary vote on new Brexit deal (tentative). As noted it remains unclear whether Prime Minister Johnson will be able to push through such a vote, with various members of parliament having tabled a number of motions ultimately aimed at delaying such a vote.
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Haldane to speak. Whatever he says it is likely to be drowned out by Brexit noise.
Tuesday 22nd October
New Zealand: Trade balance (September)
Wednesday 23rd October
No major data releases
Thursday 24th October
Eurozone: Composite PMI (October, preliminary data). This will provide an early insight in how Eurozone economic growth fared in early Q4 after the third quarter ended on a very weak note. The composite PMI fell to 50.1 in September (with a number below 50 indicating contracting economic activity) and analysts forecast only a modest rebound in October to 50.4
Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting, statement and press conference. The ECB, which announced a rate cut and the resumption of QE at its last meeting, is not expected to deliver any meaningful policy changes at this meeting. However, ECB President Draghi – whose tenure will end on 31st October – may elaborate on the central bank’s decision to loosen monetary policy and set the agenda for his successor, former IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.
United States: Durable goods orders (September). This is a proxy leading indicator for US fixed investment growth which in the past 18 months has been broadly aligned with headline GDP growth. Durable goods orders have risen a cumulative 4% in the past three months but analysts forecast a 0.7% mom contraction in September.
Friday 25th October
Eurozone: German Ifo Business Climate Index (October)
