The macro-data calendar was light last week but is noticeably more packed this week, particularly in the US with external trade, consumer confidence, durable goods, the second Q3 GDP reading and personal income & spending and PCE inflation data scheduled for release. In the Eurozone, German IFO business climate and labour market data are due out but the highlight is likely to be Eurozone CPI-inflation numbers out on Friday.
Monday 25th November
Eurozone: German Ifo business climate index (November). The German economy narrowly missed being in technical recession in Q3 but the October ifo figure suggests that economic growth remained weak in early Q4 and analysts forecast little rebound in November.
New Zealand: Retail sales (Q3)
Tuesday 26th November
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Debelle and Governor Lowe to speak. Debelle is due to discuss wages and employment, Lowe unconventional monetary policy, which should provide some guidance regarding the RBA’s near-term stance including on the issue of quantitative easing. The market is pricing in 18bp of rate cuts by February 2020.
United States: Goods trade balance (October). The US trade deficit shrunk from $74.6bn in June to $70.6bn in September but this has seemingly not changed President Trump’s resolve to shrink the United States’ deficit with major trading partners, including China.
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence (November). US consumer confidence has fallen for three consecutive months to 125.9 in October from an admittedly lofty 135.8 in July, which has in turn seemingly weighed on US retail sales and household demand. The volume of retail sales contracted for the second consecutive month – the first time this had happened in over a year.
New Zealand: Trade balance (October).
Wednesday 27th November
United States: Durable goods orders (October). This proxy for domestic US fixed investment has been volatile from month to month but analysts expect a second consecutive month-on-month contraction in October.
United States: GDP (Q2, second estimate). The first reading for US GDP growth in Q3 surprised on the upside at 1.9% qoq annualised, down only fractionally from 2.0% in Q2.
United States: Personal income, spending and PCE prices (October). Growth in personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) – i.e. household demand – slowed sharply to 2.9% qoq annualised in Q3 from 4.6% in Q2. Consumer spending remains the main engine of GDP growth in the US so a further slowdown in growth in October will be of concern to policy-makers. There will also be much focus on the release of PCE price data – a key measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Core PCE inflation has oscillated in a 1.5-1.8% yoy range since February, below the Fed’s implicit 2% target.
Thursday 28th November
Switzerland: GDP (Q3). Swiss GDP growth has been steady around 0.3-0.4% qoq in the past three quarters but analysts forecast that growth slowed to 0.2% qoq in Q3, in line with the broader European growth slowdown.
Friday 29th November
United States: Thanksgiving day (public holiday)
Switzerland: KOF Leading Indicators (November)
Eurozone: German labour market data (November)
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (November, preliminary data). Headline CPI-inflation was unchanged at a multi-year low of 0.7% yoy in October while core CPI-inflation has been trending around 1% yoy. Depressed inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone leaves new ECB President Lagarde under pressure.
