The week starts off slowly in terms of macro data with the release on Tuesday of UK GDP data for Q4 arguably of secondary interest. The focus instead will likely be on central banks. ECB President Lagarde is due to speak while Fed Chairperson Powell will testify to the Joint Economic Committee over two days. The RBNZ holds it policy meeting on Wednesday and RBA Governor Lowe speaks on Thursday. The big macro data releases will come later in the week, with the US scheduled to release key inflation and retail sales figures.
The following week sees the UK releases its usual trifecta of labour market, CPI-inflation and retail sales data while NY and Philly Fed manufacturing data for February will provide a first glimpse of how the US economy fared mid Q1. Finally on Friday 21st February, the Eurozone is due to publish preliminary PMI figures for February.
Monday 10th February
United States: FOMC members Bowman and Harker to speak. The Fed has been clear that the US economy is in a good place and it is comfortable with the currency policy rate. Nevertheless markets are still pricing 38bp of rate cuts for this year.
Tuesday 11th February
United Kingdom: GDP (Q4, preliminary data). The Bank of England in its latest monetary policy report forecast that GDP growth ground to a halt in Q4, after having risen 0.4% qoq in Q3. If correct, this would imply that year-on-year growth slowed to a decade low of 0.9%. However, of far more interest will be Q1 2020 data and the extent to which growth recovered following the 12th December general election and the UK’s exit from the EU on 31st January.
Eurozone: ECB President Lagarde to speak
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee (day one).
United States: FOMC members Quarles, Bullard and Kashkari to speak
Wednesday 12th February
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting. The RBNZ is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, with the Kiwi Dollar’s 3% depreciation year-to-date having helped ease monetary policy. However, the central bank is likely to note the negative impact of the coronavirus on New Zealand’s economy.
Eurozone: Industrial output (December)
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee (day two).
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr to speak.
Thursday 13th February
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe to speak.
United States: CPI-inflation (January). While core CPI-inflation has been stable around 2.3% yoy in recent months headline CPI-inflation rose to a 13-month high of 2.3% yoy in December. This has given the Fed room to keep its policy rate on hold and this is unlikely to change unless US CPI-inflation rose or fell dramatically in January.
Friday 14th February
United States: Retail sales (January). Growth in the $-value of retail sales was a steady 0.3-0.4% mom in each of the previous three months and analyst forecast a similar rate of growth for January.
United States: Industrial output (January). Decent US manufacturing PMI data for January suggest that the under-pressure industrial sector may have had some relief early in the year.
Monday 17th February
United States: Public holiday
Tuesday 18th February
United Kingdom: Labour market data (December). The UK labour market is robust but this has not translated to stronger consumer demand. The question for the Bank of England and markets is whether this will change in coming months.
Wednesday 19th February
Eurozone: German ZEW Economic Sentiment index (February). Economic sentiment in the Eurozone’s largest economy surged to its strongest level since July 2015 in January (+26.7) which may be reflected in stronger German macro data in coming months (albeit from a low base).
United States: New York Empire State manufacturing Index (February). One of the first indications of how the US economy fared mid Q1 2020. US GDP growth was remarkably stable at 0.5% qoq in Q2, Q3 and Q4 2019.
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (January). Core and headline CPI-inflation fell sharply in December but the Bank of England nevertheless kept its policy rate unchanged at its 30th January policy meeting. Markets forecast that core and headline CPI-inflation rose in January from respectively 1.4% yoy and 1.3% yoy.
United States: Building permits and housing starts (January).
Thursday 20th February
Australia: Labour market data (January).
United Kingdom: Retail sales (January). Retail sales volume contracted 0.8% mom in November and failed to bounce back in December, contracting a further 0.6% mom. Analysts forecast that the recovery instead materialised in January (+0.5% mom).
United States: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (February)
Friday 21St February
Eurozone: Composite PMI (February, preliminary data). This indicator of Eurozone economic activity has inched higher in the past three months, from a low base, but analysts forecast little change in February.
