On the macro data front the calendar is heavy in the US, with consumer confidence, durable goods, trade, income, spending and inflation data due for release, while a number of FOMC members are due to share their thoughts. ECB President Lagarde and UK MPC member Haldane are also scheduled to speak while in New Zealand January trade data will be in focus.
Monday 24th February
Eurozone: German Ifo Business Climate index (February). Business confidence has inched higher in the Eurozone’s largest economy in recent months but this has yet to translate to hard data.
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC Member Haldane to speak. The chief economist is at the more hawkish end of the spectrum although he has regularly expressed concerns about the UK’s weak productivity growth.
Tuesday 25th February
United States: FOMC members Kaplan and Clarida to speak. The Fed has been clear that the US economy is in a good place and it is comfortable with the currency policy rate, despite the risks presented by the coronavirus. Nevertheless markets are now pricing 54bp of rate cuts for this year.
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence (February). US consumer confidence has remained resilient which has helped put a floor under retail sales and household demand growth and analysts forecast little change for February.
Wednesday 26th February
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Lagarde to speak.
United States: FOMC members Kaplan and Kashkari to speak.
New Zealand: Goods trade data (January). The underlying trend in the past year has been a narrowing of New Zealand’s trade deficit but the question is whether the Chinese coronavirus’ impact on regional trade has arrested this improvement.
Thursday 27th February
United States: Durable goods (January).
United States: Q4 GDP (second reading). US GDP growth was broadly unchanged in Q4 from Q3 2019 at 2.1% qoq annualised according to the first reading and analysts expect the second reading to confirm this.
United States: FOMC members Evans and Mester to speak.
Friday 28th February
Australia: Private sector credit (January).
Switzerland: Retail sales (January) and KOF leading indicator (February). Markets have arguably paid little attention to Swiss macro data, instead privileging the currency’s safe-haven status.
Eurozone: German inflation and labour market data (February).
United States: Good trade balance (January). The US trade deficit narrowed throughout 2019, with the exception of December.
United States: Personal income, spending and inflation (January). Household consumption growth slowed to 1.8% qoq annualised (seasonally-adjusted) in Q4 2019 from 3.2% in Q3 and 4.6% in Q2, which has held back US headline growth.
