Markets last week largely ignored macro data releases but could be more sensitive to indicators of economic activity for the months of January and in particularly February. In any case the US calendar is particulary heavy with ISM PMI and labour market data due for release. Eurozone and Swiss CPI-inflation figures for February may also get some attention while in Australia the focus will be on tomorrow’s RBA policy meeting and February trade data due out on Thursday.
Monday 2nd March
United Kingdom: Manufacturing PMI (February, final data).
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (February). This forward-looking indicator of US manufacturing activity rebounded sharply in January to 50.9 from 47.8 in January but analysts forecast a small downtick to 50.4 in February.
Tuesday 3rd March
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. Analysts forecast that the RBA will keep rates unchanged at 0.75% but markets are pricing in a 25bp rate cut on the basis that Australia’s economy has been hard hit by the coronavirus and Australian bushfires.
Switzerland: GDP (Q4). Analysts forecast that GDP growth halved in Q4 to just 0.2% as a result of weak growth in the Eurozone and the negative impact of the Swiss Franc’s appreciation on Swiss competitiveness.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (February, preliminary data). The consensus forecast is that core CPI-inflation was unchanged at 1.1% yoy while headline CPI-inflation fell to 1.2% yoy from 1.4% yoy in January. These data may act as a timely reminder that inflation (and growth) remain weak in the Eurozone.
United States: FOMC members Mester and Evans to speak. They are likely to echo Fed Chairperson Powell’s view that rate cuts may be required to shore up US economic growth in the context of the coronavirus epidemic while downplaying markets’ pricing of 100bp of Fed rate cuts this year.
Wednesday 4th February
Australia: GDP (Q4). Analysts forecast that Australian GDP growth was unchanged at 0.4% qoq in Q4 but these data may be somewhat irrelevant to markets focusing on how the economy fared in Q1 2020 in the face of the coronavirus epidemic and bushfires.
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (February). Headline CPI-inflation was only 0.2% yoy in January and analysts expect no change in February. With the Swiss economy still hovering near deflation the Swiss National Bank is likely to remain under pressure to curtail its currency’s rapid appreciation.
Eurozone: Retail sales (January).
United States: ADP private sector employment change (February). The January figure of +291,000 was materially stronger than expected and analyst forecast a return to trend in February (+170,000).
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (February). The US services sector has been driving headline economic growth but the consensus forecast is that the ISM PMI edged lower to 54.9 in February from 55.5 in January.
United States: FOMC member Bullard to speak.
Thursday 5th February
United Kingdom: British Retail Consortium (BRC) retail sales monitor (February).
Australia: Goods trade data (February). These data are likely to prove informative as to what extent the coronavirus and bushfires impacted Australian trade and economy.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney and MPC member Haldane to speak. Carney, who steps down on 15th March, and the Bank of England’s chief economist may shed greater light on how the UK economy has fared in recent weeks and to what extent the central bank could respond.
United States: FOMC member Kaplan to speak.
Friday 6th February
Australia: Retail sales (January).
United States: Labour market data (February). The US labour market has shown few signs of weakness with the economy creating 225,000 jobs in January and average hourly earnings growth stable around 3.1% yoy.
