Markets continue to largely ignore macro data releases although March figures – which are due to be released in coming weeks – may get far more attention as the world tries to quantify the initial economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In particular, US consumer confidence, PMI and labour market data out this week will help complete the economic picture for Q1. In the Eurozone the focus is likely to be on German employment and Eurozone inflation figures.
Monday 30th March
United States: Pending home sale (February).
Tuesday 31st March
Switzerland: Retail sales (February)
Eurozone: Germany labour market data (March). Unemployment in the Eurozone’s largest economy has been broadly stable at just under 2.3 million but it may have already risen in March.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (March). Core and headline CPI-inflation were weak in February at 1.2% yoy and in normal times this release would be of interest to markets. In the current context only a big fall or increase is likely to really move markets’ needle.
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence index (March). Robust US consumer confidence has been a critical underpinning of solid domestic consumption and GDP growth. However analysts forecast that the index dropped to a three-year low of112 in March from 130.7 in February.
Wednesday 1st April
United States: ADP private sector employment data (March). The surge in initial jobless claims data last week point to some very weak private sector employment figures and indeed analysts forecast a contraction of 154,000 in the month.
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (March). The index of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector was pretty stable in February at just above 50 but is expected to have fallen to a multi-year low of 45 in March.
Thursday 2nd April
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (March).
United States: Trade balance (February). It may still be a little early to gage how the coronavirus has impact US export and import figures.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week to 2nd April).
Friday 3rd April
Australia: Retail sales (February)
United States: Labour market data (March). Non-farm payrolls, which increased by 273,000 in both January and February, are forecast to have contracted 100,000 in March.
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (March). The index of economic activity in the critical US service sector hit a one-year high of 57. 3 in February but is forecast to have collapsed to 44.0 in March.
