The calendar is light this week, except in the United States, with consumer confidence, durable goods, personal income, spending, PCE price index and trade balance figures due for release. Eurozone CPI-inflation data for May (out Friday) will provide some colour on the pace of deflation when most Eurozone economies were in national lockdown.
Monday 25th May
United States, United Kingdom: Public holiday
Eurozone: German Ifo business climate index (May). This index of the economic climate in the Eurozone’s largest economy hit an all-time low in April of 74.3 and is expected to have rebounded modestly in May to 78.3.
New Zealand: Trade balance (April).
Tuesday 26th May
Switzerland: Trade balance (April).
United States: Consumer Board consumer confidence index (April). This index of US consumer confidence, which is critical for domestic consumption and overall economic growth, fell to 86.9 in April – its weakest level since mid-2014. The consensus forecast is that it inched higher in May to 88.0
Wednesday 27th May
United States: Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday 28th May
United States: Durable goods orders (April). This proxy for domestic investment contracted 15.3% mom in March, the largest monthly contraction since September 2014 (-18.3% mom). Durable goods orders are expected to have shrunk a further 18.5% mom in April as lockdowns in most US states hit corporate demand and investment.
United States: GDP, Q1 (second estimate). According to the advance estimate US GDP contracted by a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 4.8% qoq in Q1.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week till 28th May). The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time has increased by 39 million in the past nine weeks and is expected to rise by a further 2.1 million this week.
Friday 29th May
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (May)
Eurozone: CPI-inflation, May (preliminary data). The consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation fell to just 0.1% yoy in May – the lowest rate since mid-2016 – from 0.3% yoy in April. Core CPI-inflation fell to 0.9% yoy in April, the low-end of a 0.7-1.3% yoy range in place since mid-2015.
United States: Personal income, spending and PCE price index (April)
United States: Good trades balance (April). The US good trade deficit ($64.4bn in March) does not always get much attention but the size of the US deficit with China may be become relevant given the deterioration in relations between the two trading super-powers and concerns of a resumption of the US-China trade war.
