After a quiet week on the macro data release front the calendar is once again very heavy, particularly in the US and UK. The former is due to release CPI-inflation, retail sales, industrial output and housing data for June, New York and Philadelphia manufacturing indices for July and Initial jobless claims for the week ending 16th July. In the UK the focus will be on monthly GDP (May), CPI-inflation (June), labour market (May-June) and retail sales (June) figures. Bank of England Governor Bailey is also due to make two speeches.
The European Central Bank holds its policy meeting on Thursday while Germany is due to publish CPI-inflation and economic sentiment data. Swiss National Bank Governor Jordan is due to speak tomorrow and Swiss trade data for June are due out on Thursday.
In New Zealand and Australia the focus will be on, respectively, CPI-inflation numbers for Q2 and labour market data for June.
Monday 13th July
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak. Markets will be looking for reassurances from Bailey that the Bank of England is willing and able to continue funding the government’s ballooning fiscal deficit beyond August.
United States: FOMC member Williams to speak.
Tuesday 14th July
United Kingdom: GDP (May). GDP contracted a record 20.4% mom in April, the first full-month of the UK lockdown. But the rebound in the composite PMI to in May to 30.0 from an all-time low of 13.8 in April suggests that GDP growth contracted at a far slower pace in May.
Eurozone: German CPI-inflation (June).
Eurozone: German ZEW economic sentiment (July). Economic sentiment in the Eurozone’s largest economy has risen for three consecutive months since the index hit -49.5 in March (its weakest level since end-2011) but is expected to have dipped in July to 60.0 from 63.4 in June.
Eurozone: Industrial output (May).
United States: CPI-inflation (June). The consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation rose to 0.6% yoy from 0.1% yoy in May but that core CPI-inflation inched lower to 1.1% yoy from 1.2% yoy. In any case these data are unlikely to have a material impact on Federal Reserve Monetary policy near-term.
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank Chairman Jordan to speak.
United States: FOMC members Brainard and Bullard to speak.
Wednesday 15th July
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (June). The consensus forecast is that core and headline CPI-inflation remained unchanged in June at respectively 1.2% yoy and 0.5% yoy.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Monetary Policy Council (MPC) member Tenreyro to speak. The Bank of England has discussed the implications of cutting the policy rate (currently 0.10%) and taking it into negative territory but there is seemingly little appetite for such a move.
United States: New York Fed Empire State manufacturing index (July). This will provide an early indication of how the US manufacturing sector fared in the first half of July. The consensus forecast is that the index was positive (+9.3) for the first time since February.
United States: Industrial output (June).
United States: FOMC member Harker to speak.
New Zealand: CPI-inflation (Q2). Headline CPI-inflation is expected to have halved in Q2 to 0.4% qoq. Markets are likely to be sensitive to material surprises, particularly to the downside, given the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s reasonably dovish statement at its policy meeting on 24th June.
Thursday 16th July
Australia: Labour market data (June). A total of 822,000 jobs were lost in April-May but the consensus forecast is that the economy created 112,500 jobs in June.
United Kingdom: Labour market (May). Data have become harder to interpret with the advent of numerous government measures to support the UK labour market and make it easier for people to access state benefits. The number of employees on UK payrolls (which excluded self-employed workers) fell by over 600,000 between late-March and early May despite 6.3 million employees having been furloughed. The number of people claiming (mostly unemployment) benefits rose by 529,000 in May, half the number recorded in April, and the consensus forecast is that it halved again to 250,000 in June.
Switzerland: Trade balance (June).
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Bailey and Monetary Policy Council (MPC) member Haldane to speak.
Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting, statement and press conference. The ECB is expected to leave its policy (deposit) rate unchanged at -0.50%.
United States: Retail sales (June). The $-value of retail sales rebounded 17.7% mom in Mau and is expected to have risen a further 5% mom in June.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 16th July). The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time has been falling since the record-high of 6.9 million in the week to 2nd April and is expected to have fallen further in the week to 16th July to 1.25 million.
United States: Philadelphia Fed Empire State manufacturing index (July).
Friday 17th July
United Kingdom: Retail sales (June). Retail sales rose a record 12% mom in May, albeit from very a depressed base, and likely rose further in June as the UK lockdown was further unwound.
Eurozone: European Central Bank board members de Guindos and Schnabel to speak.
United States: Building permits and housing starts (June).
