The data and events calendar is light on Monday but is due to get heavier as the week progresses. In the US retail sales and industrial output data for July are expected to point to an ongoing recovery in US economic activity. In the UK the focus will be on (arguably difficult to decipher) labour market figures for June-July and GDP data for June (and Q2). The RBNZ is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% while in Australia the main data release will be for July employment (on Thursday).
Monday 10th August
Switzerland: Labour market data (July).
Tuesday 11th August
Australia: NAB business confidence (July).
United Kingdom: Labour market data (June-July). Data have become harder to interpret with the advent of numerous government measures to support the UK labour market and make it easier for people to access state benefits. The number of employees on UK payrolls (which excluded self-employed workers) fell by almost 650,000 between late-March and early June despite 9 million employees having been furloughed. The number of people claiming (mostly unemployment) benefits fell by 28,100 in June but is expected to have risen by 250,000 in July.
Eurozone: German ZEW Economic Sentiment (August)
Wednesday 12th August
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting, statement and press conference. Like other major central banks recently the RBNZ is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged (at a record low 0.25%). The question is the extent to which the RBNZ thinks it needs to and can provide further monetary policy stimulus.
United Kingdom: GDP (July). GDP rebounded 1.8% mom in May and growth is expected to have accelerated further in June as the lockdown, particularly for the services sector, was loosened. However, even if GDP growth hit a record-high 10% mom in June, GDP will have contracted 20.6% qoq in Q2 – a post-war record rate of contraction for the UK and a far greater rate of contraction that in other major economies, including the United States (-9.5% qoq) and Germany (-10.1% qoq).
Eurozone: Industrial output (June).
United States: CPI-inflation (July). While headline CPI-inflation is expected to have risen from 0.6% yoy in June to 0.8% yoy in July core CPI-inflation is estimated to have inched lower to 1.1% yoy from 1.2% yoy.
Thursday 13th August
Australia: Labour market data (July). The Australian economy, which shed 820,000 jobs in April-May, created 210,800 jobs in June and is expected to have added an another 112,500 jobs in July.
Friday 14th August
Australia: RBA Governor Lowe to speak.
United States: Retail sales (July). Retail sales growth slowed from 18.2% mom in May to 7.5% mom in June and is forecast to have slowed further in July to 1.7% mom with less favourable base effects playing their part.
United States: Industrial output (July). Strong ISM manufacturing PMI data point to another month of strong manufacturing output growth in July and indeed analysts forecast +5.6% mom (+3.0% mom industrial output growth in July).
