It’s a big week for central banks. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are due to meet on respectively Wednesday and Thursday while the Reserve Bank of Australia will release tomorrow the minutes of its latest policy meeting. Markets will be gauging the extent to which policy-makers are willing and able to cap government bond yields.
The US will also release retail sales and industrial output figures for February and manufacturing indices for March. In Australia the focus will be on labour market and retail sales data. The macro release calendar is light in the UK and Eurozone although the British government’s budget figures for last month will likely get some coverage.
Monday 15th March
United States: New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (March). This index of activity in the US manufacturing sector is one of the first leading indicators for the month of March. The index rebounded in February after four straight months of declines and is expected to have risen further from 12.1 to 14.5 in March.
Tuesday 16th March
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia to release minutes of its latest policy meeting.
Eurozone: German ZEW Economic Sentiment (March). This gage for the Eurozone’s largest economy has risen three months in a row and analysts estimate that it rose for a fourth consecutive month to 74 in March.
United States: Retail sales (February). The USD-value of retail sales surged 5.3% mom in January, which was partly due to households spending (some of) their cheques from the $0.9 trn fiscal stimulus package approved in late-2020. The consensus forecast is that households took a breather in February and that retail sales shrunk 0.6% mom.
United States: Industrial output (February).
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Kent to speak.
Wednesday 17th March
United States: Building permits and housing starts (February).
United States: Federal Reserve policy meeting, statement, updated projections and press conference. Markets will be assessing the extent to which the Federal Reserve is willing to keep Treasury yields on a tight leash or at least stem any disorderly upward moves. Moreover, there will be focus on the Fed’s updated macro forecasts, in particular the “dot” chart which plots FOMC members’ expected path for the US policy rate.
New Zealand: GDP (Q4). New Zealand’s GDP rebounded an impressive 14% qoq in Q3, a trend observed in many developed economies, but analysts estimate that GDP flat-lined in the last quarter of 2020.
Thursday 18th March
Australia: Labour market data (February). Since May 2020 the Australian economy has created jobs every month, bar September, but the pace of job creation slowed in Q4 and to just 29,100 in January. The consensus forecast is that total employment again rose by only a modest 30,000 in February but that this was sufficient to cut the unemployment rate to 6.3% from 6.4%.
Switzerland: External trade balance (February).
United Kingdom: Bank of England policy meeting, minutes and press conference. The overwhelming view among analysts is that the Monetary Policy Council will leave its policy rate (a record-low -0.10%) and the modalities of its quantitative easing program unchanged. However, the tone of its policy meeting minutes and press conference could well dictate UK financial markets’ direction for the remainder of the week.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 18th March).
United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index (March).
Friday 19th March
Australia: Retail sales (February).
United Kingdom: Public Sector Net Borrowing (February) The government’s budget deficit shrunk to “only” £8bn in January, its narrowest level since a £12.4bn surplus a year earlier.
