Last week was mainly about the central banks but this week it’s arguably about the macro data, even if a number of senior Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England policy-makers are due to speak while Chairperson Powell will testify before the Joint Economic Committee.
In the US the highlight is personal income, spending and in particular PCE-inflation data for February due out on Friday. In the UK there is the usual trifecta of labour market, CPI-inflation and retail sales figures as well as preliminary Composite PMI numbers for March. The Eurozone is also due to release the latter, as well as the German Ifo business climate index.
However, European macro data releases may be overshadowed by the ongoing spat between the UK and EU over the production and export of the AstraZeneca vaccine – an issue which will top the agenda of the European Commission’s meeting on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank is expected to once again leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting this week.
In Australia and New Zealand there are few tier-one releases of note although New Zealand external trade figures for February are relevant to the Kiwi Dollar’s evolution.
Monday 22nd March
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell and FOMC members Barkin, Daly, Quarles and Bowman to speak. Fed policy-makers will be under pressure to clarify their currently very dovish interest rate policy stance in the context of the central bank’s upwardly revised forecasts for core PCE-inflation and in particular US GDP growth. Bond markets’ reactions to these speeches could prove telling.
Eurozone: European Central Bank board member Schnabel to speak.
Tuesday 23rd March
United Kingdom: Labour market data (January-February). As always there will be a lot of data for analysts and markets to digest. The UK labour market has on the surface held up reasonably well in large part thanks to the government’s substantial and stimulative fiscal and income policies. The consensus forecast however is that there were 167,000 fewer people employed in November 2020-January 2021 than a year earlier and that the unemployment rate inched higher to 5.2% in January from 5.1% at end-2020.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Monetary Policy Council member Cunliffe to speak.
New Zealand: External trade balance (February). The goods trade balance has continued to improve as a result of weak imports but resilient exports.
Wednesday 24th March
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (February). The consensus forecast is that core and headline CPI-inflation were broadly unchanged from respectively 1.4% yoy and 0.7% yoy in January. If correct this should cement market expectations that for now the Monetary Policy Council can afford to keep its policy rate unchanged at a record low 0.1%.
Eurozone: Composite PMI (March, preliminary data). This measure of economic activity in the Eurozone manufacturing and services sector was stable in January and February around the 48 mark and the consensus forecast is that it changed little in March for the third month in a row.
United Kingdom: Composite PMI (March, preliminary data). This timely indicator of economic activity rebounded sharply in February to 49.6 albeit from a very low base of 41.2 in January. With British schools having re-opened in early March it is conceivable that the UK Composite PMI and GDP recovered further in March.
United States: Durable goods orders (February). Growth in this proxy for domestic investment accelerated to 3.4% mom in January but is expected to have slowed sharply in February to 0.8% mom.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee.
United States: FOMC members Daly, Evans and Williams to speak.
Thursday 25th March
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank policy meeting. The consensus forecast is that the central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at -0.75%.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak.
Eurozone: European Central Bank president Lagarde to speak.
Eurozone: European Commission to meet, with top of the agenda whether or not to introduce export restrictions on AstraZeneca vaccines manufactured in the EU and destined to the United Kingdom.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 25th March).
United States: GDP (Q4 2020, third estimate). Seasonally-adjusted annualised GDP growth hit 4.1% qoq in Q4 according to previous estimates and no material revisions are expected.
Friday 26th March
United Kingdom: Retail sales (February). Retail sales collapsed 8.2% mom in January when the UK economy was in its first full month of a third lockdown still in place. The consensus forecast is that retail sales rebounded in February, albeit by a modest 2.1% mom.
Eurozone: German Ifo business climate index (March). This index has been pretty stable in a 90.4-93.2 range since last July and the consensus forecast is that it inched higher to the top end of that range in March.
United States: Goods trade balance (February).
United States: Personal income, spending and PCE-inflation (February). This data release, which does not always gets the attention it deserves, will likely be on markets’ radar screens this time round given the Fed’s recent forecast that core PCE-inflation, its preferred inflation gage, will rise only slowly from 1.5% yoy in January to 2.2% yoy by end-2021 despite a projected 37-year high in GDP growth of 6.5%. Analysts estimate that core PCE-inflation was unchanged in February at 1.5% yoy.
