It’s a big week for the UK, with labour market, CPI-inflation, retail sales, fiscal and PMI data due for release. The Eurozone will also release manufacturing and services PMI figures while the ECB holds its policy meeting on Thursday. Further afield, the focus is likely to be on New Zealand’s release of Q1 CPI-inflation data and Australian retail sales figures.
Monday 19th April
No major data releases or events
Tuesday 20th April
Australia: Release of Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes. The RBA has so far given little inclination that it is even thinking of hiking its policy rate.
United Kingdom: Labour market data (February-March). The unemployment rate has been hovering around 5% since October, thanks in part to the government’s generous furlough scheme. The consensus forecast is that the unemployment rate was broadly unchanged in February.
New Zealand: CPI-inflation (Q1 2021). The consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation rose marginally to 0.7% qoq in Q1 from 0.5% qoq in Q4 2020. If correct this is unlikely to change the RBNZ’s slightly dovish tilt.
Wednesday 21st April
Australia: Retail sales (March, preliminary data).
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (March). The consensus forecast is that both core and headline CPI-inflation rose slightly in March to 1% yoy and 0.7% yoy. It would take a significant upward or downward surprise for the Bank of England to even start thinking about a change to its policy rate which currently stands at a record low of 0.10%.
United Kingdom: Bank of England governor Bailey and MPC member Ramsden to speak.
Thursday 22nd April
Switzerland: External trade balance (March).
Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting, statement and press conference. The ECB is very likely to leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.50% but could announce dovish tweaks to its asset purchase program.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 22nd April).
Friday 23rd April
United Kingdom: Retail sales (March). Retail sales have been choppy but weak overall in the past four months as a result of the domestic lockdown’s dampening effect on consumer demand. The consensus forecast is that the re-opening of schools in March will have contributed to a 1.5% mom rise in retail sales. The jump in April, when non-essential retailers re-opened, is likely to have been far more pronounced.
United Kingdom: Public sector net borrowing (March). The fiscal deficit jumped to £18.4bn in February after falling to a 10-month low of £2.4bn in January. Regardless of the size of the deficit in March – the last month of the UK fiscal year – the government deficit in 2020-2021 is likely to have hit a record post World War Two high. The 11-month deficit in April 2020-February 2011 was £286.4bn.
Eurozone: Composite PMI (April, preliminary data). This early indicator economic activity in the manufacturing and service sectors is expected to have dipped to 49.1 in April following a jump to 49.6 in March.
United Kingdom: Composite PMI (April, preliminary data). This index, which when above 50 indicates a pick-up in economic activity, jumped seven percentage points to 56.6 in March. The further easing in domestic lockdown measures may have fuelled a further rise in the Composite PMI in the first half of April.
