It’s the turn of the United States to have a big week. On the macro data front, focus will be on the release of figures for durable goods orders, consumer confidence, goods trade balance, Q1 GDP, personal income and spending and PCE-inflation. Sandwiched in between will be the Fed’s policy meeting.
In the Eurozone and Australia, CPI-inflation data for respectively April and Q1 2021 are likely to be the highlight.
Monday 26th April
New Zealand: Public holiday
Eurozone: German IFO business climate index (April).
United States: Durables goods orders (March). This proxy for domestic fixed investment contracted in February after six consecutive months of growth but headline durable goods orders are expected to have risen 2.5% mom in March.
Tuesday 27th April
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence index (April). Consumer confidence, which is key to US consumer demand, jumped in March with US households receiving “stimulus” cheques from the government. Analysts estimate that the index rose further in April to 112.1 from 109.7 in March.
Wednesday 28th April
Australia: CPI-inflation (Q1 2021). The consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation was unchanged at 0.9% qoq. If this proves correct this data release is unlikely to materially alter the Reserve Bank of Australia’s current “wait and see” approach to interest rate policy.
United States: Goods trade balance (March). The trade deficit hit an all-time high of $87bn in February despite the Dollar’s depreciation, pointing to wider issues that just US price competitiveness.
United States: Federal Reserve policy meeting, statement and press conference. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to deliver any major surprises, with Chairperson Powell expected to stick to his dovish “patience until substantial further progress is seen” monetary policy stance. The litmus test will be whether the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield remains range-bound.
New Zealand: Goods trade balance (March).
Thursday 29th April
Eurozone: German labour market data (March).
United States: GDP (Q1 2021, preliminary data). The consensus forecast is that the seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of growth accelerated to 6.5% qoq in Q1 from 4.3% qoq in Q4 2020 and this is supported by a pick-up in US economic activity indicators in February and in particular March.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 29th April).
Friday 30th April
Australia: Private sector credit (March).
Eurozone: German GDP (Q1, preliminary data). The German economy expanded by a modest 0.3% qoq in Q4 2020 and is expected to have contracted 1.5% qoq in Q1 2021 partly as a result of the re-introduction of domestic lockdown measures.
Switzerland: Retail sales (March).
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (April).
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (April, preliminary data). The consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation rose to 1.6% yoy in April from 1.3% yoy in March but that core CPI-inflation remained unchanged at 1.0% yoy. The European Central Bank is more likely to pay attention to core CPI-inflation, for now at least.
United States: Personal income, spending and PCE-inflation (March). Core PCE-inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is expected to have risen to 1.8% yoy (a joint two-year high) from 1.4% yoy in February. This may not worry the Federal Reserve but financial markets’ reaction will be key for US assets, including the Dollar and equities.
