With no tier-1 macro data or policy events due today, markets are seemingly focused on the broader theme of higher US government bond yields continuing to push the Dollar stronger, including versus the Euro, Sterling and Yen. Brent crude oil is trading at $74/barrel and hovering near the highs since late-2014, US macro data have been decent in recent weeks and FOMC members have done little to dispel the possibility that the Federal Reserve may still hike rates three more times this year. This has contributed to US 10-year yields breaking through the psychologically important 3% level for the first time since late 2013.
The first estimate of US data for Q1 GDP is due for release on Friday. Analysts forecast that GDP growth slowed to 2.0% quarter-on-quarter annualized from a robust 2.9% in Q4 2017 but US GPD data are often revised (and sometimes quite significantly) in subsequent second and third estimates. So unless the first estimate really surprises on the upside or downside, US rates and currency markets may ultimately not react much.
