The data and events calendar starts the week slowly but builds up mid-week with the release of Australian inflation and German IFO data as well as European Commission Juncker’s meeting with President Trump before ending on a crescendo on Thursday (ECB policy meeting, US durable orders and trade data) and Friday (US Q2 GDP).
Monday 23rd July
United Kingdom: MPC member and Deputy Bank of England Governor Broadbent to speak. His take on the UK’s interest rate path could prove useful market colour ahead of next week’s policy meeting, with so far only three out of nine members clearly gunning for a 25bp hike (McCafferty, Saunders and more recently Haldane).
Tuesday 24th July
Eurozone: Preliminary manufacturing, services and composite PMI data (July). The manufacturing PMI continued to slow in Q2 pointing to still modest Eurozone GDP growth and analysts forecast a further slowdown in the PMI in July to 54.7 from 55.0 in June.
New Zealand: Labour market data (Q2) and trade balance (June).
Wednesday 25th July
Australia: CPI-inflation (Q2). The consensus forecast is for 0.5% qoq and 2.2% yoy, up from 0.4% qoq and 1.9% yoy in Q1 but it would likely take a significant upward surprise for the Reserve Bank of Australia to deviate from its broadly neutral monetary policy stance and for the Australian Dollar to take off.
European Union: European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to meet US President Trump in Washington. With trade – and in particular existing and potential US tariffs on European imports – high on the agenda, the potential for fireworks is high.
Germany: IFO business climate index (July). This index, which tallies quite closely with German GDP growth, dropped sharply in February and has since been slowly grinding weaker. The consensus forecast is for this trend to extend, with a fall to 101.6 in July from 101.8 in June.
Thursday 26th July
Eurozone: European Central Bank meeting. The consensus forecast is that the ECB will keep its policy rates unchanged and will not alter the timing of the tapering of its QE program. But markets will be looking for any signs as to whether the ECB has deviated, even if slightly, from its June meeting regarding the medium-term outlook for interest rates. In June the ECB indicated that rate hikes were unlikely before summer 2019 but some ECB Board members have since expressed concerns that this was a too cautious timeline and that the ECB could consider a rate hike as early as summer 2019.
United States: Durable goods orders (June).
United States: Trade balance on goods (June). The US trade deficit has shrunk in recent months but has remained high with key trading partners, including China and Mexico. This is likely to keep President Trump on the front foot when it comes to the United States’ trade war.
Friday 27th July
United States: Preliminary estimate GDP (Q2). This will be a key data point with estimates pointing to 4-4.5% qoq annualised growth, or about twice as fast as Q1 (2.2%).
United States: FOMC member Bullard speaks
