With major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Reserve Bank of Australia having held policy meetings in the past fortnight macro data due out this week may end up playing second fiddle to the deteriorating US-Turkey relationship and possible response from the Turkish government to the collapsed Lira.
Nevertheless the macro calendar is heavy for the UK, with labour market, CPI-inflation and retail sales data due for release while in the US markets will keep an eye on retail sales, industrial output and the NY Fed Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices for August. In Australia, labour market data for July are due out Thursday and RBA Governor Lowe speaks on Friday.
Monday 13th August
Nothing of note
Tuesday 14th August
United Kingdom: Labour market data (June). With the UK unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 4.2%, the focus will likely be on real weakly earnings which have flat-lined since last August. Unless real wages start to pick up, consumer demand growth and CPI-inflation are likely to remain modest which in turn would reduce the odds of the Bank of England hiking rates again before year-end.
Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment (August). Economic sentiment has progressively deteriorated this year and analysts expect only a modest rebound in the ZEW index to -20.7 from a multi-year low of -24.7 in July.
Wednesday 15th August
Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment (August)
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (July). Headline inflation was unchanged at 2.4% yoy in June for the third consecutive month running while core inflation fell to a 15-month low of 1.9% yoy and the consensus forecast is for only a minor increase in headline to 2.5% yoy and unchanged core CPI-inflation. Sterling’s year-on-year disinflationary appreciation is negating higher international commodity prices while underlying demand-pull inflation remains subdued. It is therefore not obvious what will drive inflation much higher in coming months and with the Bank of England keeping a close eye on Brexit developments, another rate hike soon seems unlikely any time.
United States: Retail sales (July). This is quite a volatile series and after monthly growth of 0.8% mom and 0.5% mom in May and June, respectively, analysts forecast a further slowdown to 0.2% mom in July.
United States: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August). This index of economic activity has been strong since the beginning of the year and typically correlates well with US GDP growth. But it fell to 22.6 in July from 25.0 in June and the consensus forecast is for a further fall to 20.30 in August. This would suggest that US GDP growth slowed slightly in Q3 from 4.1% qoq annualised in Q2.
United States: Industrial production (July).
Eurozone: German Bundesbank President Weidmann Speaks. He is typically viewed as a hawk and he may, as he has done in the past, try to talk up the possibility of the ECB hiking rates as early as summer 2019.
Thursday 16th August
Australia: Labour market data (July). Focus as often the case likely to be on the breakdown of the change in full-time and part-time jobs.
United Kingdom: Retail sales (July). The volume of retail sales contracted 0.6% mom in June and while analysts expect a 0.2% mom rebound in July, the VISA consumer spending index and BRC retail sales monitor point to soft retail sales in July.
United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August). Like the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (due out the day before), the Philly Fed index has historically correlated quite well with US GDP growth.
Friday 17th August
Australia: RBA Governor Lowe and Assistant Governor Ellis Speak.
