The macro data calendar is light this week and Turkey’s markets are closed for most of the week for eid al adha.
The Turkish Lira and other high-yielding emerging markets, including the Russian Rouble, South African Rand and Indian Rupee, could remain volatile, with the US Treasury having warned Turkey to expect more economic sanctions unless it hands over detained American pastor Andrew Brunson.
China and the US are likely to remain in the spotlight with a Chinese trade delegation due to meet its US counterparts in Washington on 22-23 August, hours before hikes in tariffs on the two countries’ imports are due to kick in.
Finally, there will also likely be renewed focus on central bank policy, with the world’s top bankers meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Economic Symposium on 23-25 August. The Reserve Bank of Australia, US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will also release their latest policy meeting minutes, while rate-setters at the Federal Reserve, RBA and ECB are due to speak.
Monday 20th August
United States: FOMC Member Bostic speaks
Eurozone: German Bundesbank President Weidmann speaks
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks
Tuesday 21st August
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes to be released. The broad message is likely to be that the RBA sees no compelling reason at this stage to even consider a change in policy rates although it may acknowledge some strengthening of the Australian labour market.
New Zealand: Retail sales (Q2). This is a pretty volatile series and the consensus forecast is that retail sales rose 0.4% qoq in Q2, following a lacklustre 0.1% qoq in Q1.
Wednesday 22nd August
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Debelle Speaks
US-China: A mid-level Chinese trade delegation will be meeting its US counterparts in Washington on 22-23 August to revive negotiations over future trade between the US and China which have stalled in recent months. The hope is that these negotiations will stall US and Chinese threats to impose further tariffs on each others’ imports which are due to kick in early on 23rd August (see below).
United States: FOMC policy meeting minutes to be released. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, as expected, at its 1st August policy meeting but its minutes are likely to leave the door wide open to a possible 25bp hike at its September meeting.
Thursday 23rd August
China: A 25% tariff on $16bn worth of US imports and a 25% tariff on $16bn worth of Chinese imports are due to kick in.
Eurozone: German Bundesbank President Weidmann speaks
Eurozone: Composite PMI (August, preliminary estimate). This leading indicator for the manufacturing and services sector, which closely tracks Eurozone GDP growth, fell further in July to 54.3 from 54.9 in June (and a multi-year high of 58.8 in February) but the consensus forecast is that it stabilised in August. This would provide some welcome relief to the ECB after Eurozone GDP growth slowed to 2.2% yoy in Q2 from 2.5% yoy in Q1.
Eurozone: ECB policy meeting minutes to be released
New Zealand: Trade balance (July)
Global: First day of 3-day Economic Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world.
Friday 24th August
Global: Economic Symposium. Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell will be the keynote speaker and in the past Federal Reserve Chairpersons have used the conference to flesh out domestic interest rate policy. Markets will be looking for signs that the Federal Reserve is willing to look beyond the US-China trade war and Lira-driven emerging market currency weakness and will hike rates 25bp rate in September and potentially a further 25bp in December. ECB President Draghi will likely confirm that Eurozone growth and inflation are robust enough for the ECB to stick to its timeline of starting to downscale its bond-buying program as of October.
Saturday 25th August
Global: Last day of Economic Symposium.
