Macro data and monetary policy arguably played second fiddle to emerging market turmoil last week but could return to the fore this week. The US, UK and other major economies are due to publish August PMI numbers for the manufacturing and service sectors, Australia and Switzerland will release Q2 GDP data and the US will also release all-important labour market data for August.
Moreover, the RBA hold its policy meeting tomorrow and central bankers from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank are due to speak throughout the week.
In terms of geopolitics, the United States’ consultation period for the introduction of tariffs on a further $200bn of Chinese imports ends on 6th September and Brexit-headlines are likely to continue dominating in the UK
Monday 27th August
United States & Canada: Labour Day (Public holiday)
Eurozone: European Central Bank Board Members Mersch Speaks
Tuesday 4th September
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The policy rate will very likely remain on hold and domestic and regional macro data probably do not give the RBA much room to be more hawkish than it has been in recent months (retail sales were flat in July, despite a reasonably robust labour market). RBA Governor Lowe is due to speak later in the day.
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (August). Swiss inflation is slowly rising but from a very low base and the consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation was unchanged at 1.2% yoy in August. The Swiss National Bank is unlikely to materially change its monetary policy settings any time soon but this has not stopped the Swiss Franc from appreciating on the back of safe-haven flows.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney to testify at inflation hearing.
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI index (August). This gauge of US manufacturing activity has oscillated between 57 and 61 in the past year and the consensus forecast is for only a modest fall to 57.6 in August from 58.1 in July. This would point to still robust US economic growth in Q3.
Wednesday 5th September
Australia: GDP (Q2). Consensus forecast is that GDP growth slowed to 0.8% qoq (2.8% yoy) in Q2 from 1.0% qoq (3.1% yoy) in Q1, which if correct would underpin the RBA’s cautious stance on interest rate policy.
United Kingdom: Services PMI (August). Given the size of the service sector in the UK this measure of economic activity is arguably more important than the manufacturing PMI number which was out today (see above). The consensus forecast is for a small rise to 53.9 in August from 53.5 in July but this would unlikely materially change the market’s view that another Bank of England rate hike is very unlikely this year.
Eurozone: Retail sales (July).
United States: FOMC members Williams, Kashkari and and Bostic due to speak
Thursday 6th September
Switzerland: GDP (Q2). Consensus forecast is that GDP growth slowed to 0.5% qoq in Q2 from 0.6% qoq in Q1 which would still be strong enough to see the year-on-year rate rise to 2.4% from 2.2%. This would be a decent print, particularly given the slowdown in the Eurozone and other European economies in Q2.
United States: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (August). This measure of private-sector employment in the US is an important precursor to the much focussed non-farm payrolls data out on Friday 7th September (see below).
Eurozone: ECB board member Lautenschlaeger speaks
United States: ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (August).
Switzerland: SNB Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks.
United States: End of consultation period for the US to introduce tariffs on a further $200bn of Chinese imports. If the US government and President Trump assess that the net gains to the US would be positive and extends its tariffs to about half of its total imports from China, Chinese policy-makers are likely to retaliate in kind and global equity and FX markets could see some sizeable gyrations.
Friday 7th September
Eurozone: German industrial output and exports (July)
United States: Labour market data (August). Consensus forecast is that US economy continues to generate new jobs at a decent clip (191,000 in August) and that the unemployment rate remained unchanged near a record low of 3.9%. The pace of wage growth, which has picked up a tad in recent months, will if anything be even more telling about the strength of the US labour market.
United States: FOMC members Kaplan and Mester due to speak
