Outside of the UK the data release and events calendar is reasonably light although there will likely be much focus on US CPI-inflation data for September due out on Thursday. Beyond Brexit headlines, there will be much for markets to sink their teeth in on Thursday when the British Office of Nationals Statistics releases August data for the monthly GDP, industrial output and international trade. Moreover, the well-respected NIESR will publish its latest forecast for UK GDP growth in Q3 and hawkish MPC member Haldane is due to speak.
Monday 8th October
Canada & Japan: Public and market holiday
Tuesday 9th October
Australia: NAB Business Confidence (September)
United Kingdom: BRC retail sales (September)
Eurozone: German trade data (August)
United States: FOMC member Evans to speak.
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Broadbent to speak
Wednesday 10th October
Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment index (October).
United States: FOMC members Williams, Evans and Bostic to speak.
United Kingdom: August data for monthly GDP, industrial output and trade balance. The ONS estimated that real GDP growth had accelerated to 0.3% mom in July from 0.1% mom in June and another strong monthly growth number would support forecasts that UK GDP growth accelerated further in Q3 (see below).
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Haldane to speak. Haldane joined MPC members Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders in voting for a 25bp policy rate hike at the June 2018 meeting (at which they were outvoted 6 vs 3 in favour of unchanged rates). He is arguably one of the more hawkish MPC members and could conceivably push his case for another rate hike before year-end.
United Kingdom: NIESR estimate of GDP growth in Q3. A month ago the National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecast that UK GDP growth would rise to 0.6% qoq in Q3 from 0.4% qoq in Q2. The latest official data would tend to support this forecast but only a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Q3 and material progress on Brexit negotiations would likely convince markets that the Bank of England will hike its policy rate again in coming months.
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Ellis to speak.
Thursday 11th October
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Vieghe to speak
Eurozone: European Central Bank to publish minutes of September monetary policy meeting. These minutes have been short on excitement in recent months. But with the ECB board members seemingly a tad at odds over the underlying health of the Eurozone economy and inflation these minutes could provide some clarity and more details about the ECB’s reduction in bond purchases (which started this month)
United States: CPI-inflation (September). Headline and core CPI-inflation fell to respectively 2.7% yoy and 2.2% yoy in August and this has prompted a degree of cautiousness among FOMC members. The unexpected slowdown in wage growth in September will have done little to convince rate doves and Dollar bears that US inflation is about to accelerate again. Indeed the consensus forecast is that while core CPI-inflation rose a tad to 2.3% yoy, headline CPI-inflation fell to a 5-month low of 2.4% yoy.
New Zealand: Business NZ Purchasing Managers Index (September)
Friday 12th October
Australia: Home loans (August).
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia to publish Financial Stability Review
Eurozone: Industrial output (August)
United States: FOMC members Evans and Bostic to speak.
