Last week was light on the macro data front but this is not the case this week with the US due to publish its second reading for Q3 GDP and October data for existing and pending home sales, the goods trade balance, personal income and spending and the all-important PCE inflation measures. Moreover, FOMC members Clarida, Evans, Bostic, George and Williams are due to speak, as is Fed Chairperson Powell. The release of the Fed’s October policy meeting minutes should provide further colour on the Fed’s outlook for 2019.
In the Eurozone, the focus will be on preliminary November data for German employment and CPI-inflation as well as Eurozone CPI-inflation. A number of ECB Board members, including Coeure, Nowotny and Mersch are due to speak, as is ECB President Draghi. With Eurozone growth and inflation modest, markets will be looking for any change in tone from these key policy-makers.
In Switzerland, the key data release will be Q3 GDP data (Thursday) and SNB Chairman Jordan will speak on Saturday. The UK data calendar is very light, although Bank of England Governor Carney will be speaking later today and Brexit will undoubtedly continue to provide a steady stream of headlines.
Further afield in New Zealand there are two releases of note – the October trade balance (out tonight) and the ANZ Business Confidence Index for November (Thursday ). Moreover, RBNZ Governor Orr is due to speak after the release of the Financial Stability Report late on Tuesday.
Monday 26th November
Eurozone: ECB Board Members Coeure, Praet Nowotny and President Draghi to speak
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney to speak
New Zealand: Trade balance (October). This is a volatile series but August and September both recorded deficits of around NZD 1.5bn and yet the Kiwi Dollar still managed to appreciate over the period.
Tuesday 27th November
United States: FOMC members Clarida, Evans, Bostic and George to speak. FOMC members have undoubtedly been less hawkish than a month ago in the face of concerns about slowing global economic growth. This shift in Fed rhetoric has not stopped the Dollar from trending higher but has seemingly caused a greater degree of Dollar volatility.
Eurozone: ECB Board Member Mersch to speak
New Zealand: RBNZ Financial Stability Report and RBNZ Governor Orr to speak
Wednesday 28th November
United States: Q3 GDP (second reading). US GDP growth slowed to 3.5% qoq annualised in Q3 from 4.2% qoq in Q2 according to the first reading and analysts forecast only a small upward revision to 3.6%. Perhaps more importantly October-November macro data suggest that US growth slowed further in early Q4.
United States: Good trade balance (October). The trade deficit was particularly large in August and September at around $76bn and analysts forecast a deficit close to $77bn bn in October. Large trade deficits are unlikely to be music to President Trump’s ears as he had made it his mission to reduce the United States’ trade imbalances, particularly with China.
United States: New home sales (October).
United States: FOMC Chairperson Powell to speak. Powell has in recent weeks been somewhat less outright hawkish than in the past and markets will be seeking for clues as to whether the Fed’s thinking has evolved further ahead of its December policy meeting.
Thursday 29th November
New Zealand: ANZ Business Confidence (November). New Zealand macro data have been on the soft-side in the past month and this confidence index will provide a first glimpse of how businesses fared in November.
Switzerland: Q3 GDP. Swiss GDP growth has been amongst the fastest in the developed world (along with Australia) but analysts expect growth to have slowed to 0.4% qoq and 3.0% yoy in Q3 from 0.7% qoq and 3.4% yoy in Q2.
Eurozone: ECB President Draghi to speak
Eurozone: German labour and CPI-inflation data (November, preliminary data)
United States: Personal income and prices (October). While US consumer demand has continued to rise, spurred by higher wages, this has not translated into materially faster consumer price inflation in the past four months. The consensus forecast is that core PCE inflation – a measure of inflation closely tracked by the Federal Reserve – edged lower to 1.9% yoy in October from 2.0% yoy in September.
United States: Pending home sales (October).
United States: FOMC member Evans to speak.
United States: FOMC minutes of October policy meeting. Markets are assuming that the Fed will hike its policy rates 25bp at its 19th December meeting (the fourth hike for the year) but are far less hawkish for 2019, currently only pricing in 35bp of hikes. These latest meeting minutes could provide further guidance as to the Fed’s current thinking and create some further volatility in the US rates and currency markets.
Friday 30th November
Australia: Private sector credit (October). The RBA has expressed concerns about the slowdown in the Australian property sector and the impact on the construction industry. Markets may thus react negatively to a material slowdown in private sector growth which has been steady around 0.4-0.5% mom since July.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (November, preliminary data). Core CPI-inflation has languished around 1% yoy since May while headline CPI-inflation took four months to rise to 2.2% yoy in October from 2.0% yoy in June. The consensus forecast is that Eurozone CPI-inflation was broadly unchanged in November. Stable and low inflation has not stopped the ECB from sticking to its plan to slow and eventually stop its QE asset-purchases but has kept ECB rhetoric about future policy rate hikes very conservative.
United States: FOMC member Williams to speak.
Saturday 1st December
Switzerland: SNB Chairman Jordan to speak
