It’s a reasonably heavy data calendar for the UK (GDP data today, labour market numbers tomorrow) but ultimately there is only one event which markets will be focussing on: the parliamentary vote on the draft Brexit deal on 11th December. There are other key events and data in Europe, namely the ECB and SNB policy meetings and Eurozone manufacturing PMI data. In the US the key data release will be November data for CPI-inflation (Wednesday) and retail sales and industrial output (Friday).
Monday 10th December
United Kingdom: NIER estimate of Q4 GDP growth. Official monthly data show that UK GDP growth slowed to 0.4% qoq in August-October from 0.6% qoq in Q3.
Tuesday 11th December
Australia: NAB Business confidence (November)
United Kingdom: Labour market data (October). UK labour market on the surface has been very strong with the unemployment rate just shy of 4% but real wages are rising at only a glacial pace.
United Kingdom: House of Commons (lower house of parliament) vote on draft Brexit deal. This is a critical vote which could colour the economic, financial and political landscape for weeks, months and years to come. The consensus forecast is that the House of Commons will vote against the deal.
Wednesday 12th December
Eurozone: Industrial output (October)
United States: CPI-inflation (November). US inflationary pressures have underwhelmed and one reason why FOMC members have been able to tone down their hawkishness in recent weeks. Consensus forecast is for headline and core CPI-inflation of 2.2% yoy in November.
Thursday 13th December
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank policy meeting and press conference. SNB is expected to keep rates 0.75%.
Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting and press conference. The ECB has stuck to its guns that it would end asset purchases (QE) by end-year but only likely start hiking rates after summer 2019. If anything Eurozone and global data and developments in the past few months suggest that the ECB could at the margin be slightly more dovish at this week’s policy meeting (the last for the year).
Friday 14th December
Eurozone: Manufacturing and services PMI (December, preliminary). Consensus forecast is for little change from November, which if accurate would suggest again very modest Eurozone GDP growth in Q4.
United States: Retail sales and industrial output (November)
