The data calendar is very light on 31st December and 1st January (a bank holiday in most countries). Moreover, the US. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau will not publish economic data during the ongoing partial government shutdown, including key figures on GDP, inflation, personal income and spending, external trade, new home sales and building permits.
However, private sector and country-wide US labour market data are due to be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively. In the UK, in the likely absence of Brexit-related developments, the focus will be on manufacturing and service sector PMI data.
Monday 31st December
Australia: Private sector credit (November)
Tuesday 1st January
Bank holiday
Wednesday 2nd January
United Kingdom: Manufacturing PMI (December). This index had been on a steady downward trend since end-2017 until a large rebound in November to 53.1 from 51.1 in October. However, the consensus forecast is that this rebound was reversed in December.
Thursday 3rd January
United States: ADP Nonfarm Employment (December).
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (December). This important index has been in a reasonably narrow range of 57.3-61.3 since August 2017 and the consensus forecast is that it fell to the low-end of this range in December, to 58.0 from 59.3 in November. If correct this would provide further evidence that US GDP growth likely slowed further in Q4.
United States: New home sales (November). Tentative (see above)
Friday 4th January
United Kingdom: Services PMI (December).
United States: Labour market data (December). Financial markets may be particularly sensitive to any weakness in headline non-farm payrolls and hourly earnings.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to speak. He may well comment in passing on US President Trump’s increasingly frequent verbal attacks on the Fed’s decision to hike rates.
