In the US the pre-FOMC meeting blackout period has started so there will be no formal FOMC speeches ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting on 30th January. Note that the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau are still not updating their websites or publishing economic data during the ongoing partial government shutdown, including key figures on new home sales and durable goods orders which were due to be released this week.
The Eurozone data calendar is reasonably heavy this week with the ECB holding its policy meeting on Thursday. Preliminary Eurozone PMI data for January are due out beforehand and Germany will release data on economic sentiment and business climate on respectively Tuesday and Friday.
In the UK the focus remains squarely on the issue of Brexit, with Prime Minister May due to announce today her next step following the House of Commons’ overwhelming defeat of her draft Brexit deal last week. With this in mind UK labour market data for November due out tomorrow are unlikely to have a material or lasting impact on financial markets.
On the other side of the world, New Zealand’s key release is Q4 CPI-inflation (on Tuesday) while Australia is due to release on Thursday much-focused on labour market data for December.
Monday 21St January
United Kingdom: Prime Minister Theresa May will, by law, have to announce her proposed “Plan B” after the House of Commons comprehensively rejected her draft Brexit deal in last week’s vote. Members of parliament are due to vote on this “Plan B” on 29th January. Theresa May has so far refused to take off the table the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on 29th March and MPs are proposing to table a number of draft bills to regain control of the Brexit process.
Tuesday 22nd January
United Kingdom: Labour market data (November). The UK unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 4.1% and the focus will likely be on real weekly earnings which have risen modestly in recent months. In any case financial markets are likely to quickly return their attention to Brexit-related developments.
Eurozone: German ZEW economic sentiment index (January). The slowdown in German economic growth to around zero in the second half of 2018 has weighed on the Eurozone and analysts don’t expect German growth to have recovered in early Q1 2019. The consensus forecast is that the ZEW economic sentiment index fell to -18.3 in January from -17.5 in December.
United States: Existing home sales (December). The US housing market has been under some pressure in recent months, with existing home sales declining in six consecutive months between April and September before recovering in October-November. Analysts expect this recovery to have been partly reversed in December with sales falling back to 5.24 million from 5.32 mn in November.
New Zealand: CPI-inflation (Q4). Inflation has been pretty volatile in the past 18 months, with headline CPI-inflation oscillating between 1.1% yoy and 1.9% yoy. The consensus forecast is that CPI-inflation stabilised around 1.8% yoy in Q4 2018 but markets are unlikely to markedly change their pricing of the RBNZ keeping its policy rate unchanged throughout 2019.
Wednesday 23rd January
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Broadbent to speak
Thursday 24th January
Australia: Labour market data (December). The total employment level rose in October and November and the consensus forecast is that it rose further in December, by 16,500. This would take the total increase in Q4 to a respectable 86,500.
Eurozone: Manufacturing and services PMI (January, preliminary data).
Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting and press conference. ECB President Draghi has been somewhat more dovish in recent weeks in the face of compelling data pointing to slowing Eurozone growth (which have weighed on the Euro). Markets will be looking for signs that the ECB is looking to formally push back its timeline for policy rate hikes to Q4 or even 2020.
Friday 25th January
Eurozone: German IFO business climate index (January).
United States: Durable goods order (December). Tentative
United States: New home sales (December). Tentative
