A much quieter week compared to last week with the focus on central banks, OPEC’s semi-annual meeting on Friday as well as housing data out of the US and Q1 numbers for New Zealand. The heads of the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England are all due to speak as are other senior central bank officials. Moreover, the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank hold policy meetings and the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to publish the minutes from its June policy meeting.
Monday 18th June
China, Hong Kong: Public holiday
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Draghi to speak. Draghi will be speaking in Portugal over two days although it is unclear what extra colour he will bring following his detailed press conference last Thursday.
United States: FOMC members Dudley, Duke, Bostics and Williams to speak
Tuesday 19th June
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes. They are likely to confirm that the RBA is in no rush to hike rates given concerns about household indebtedness, modest wage growth and housing market wobble.
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Draghi to speak
Eurozone: European Central Bank Board Member Praet to speak
United States: FOMC member Bullard to speak
United States: Building permits, housing starts (May)
New Zealand: Current account (Q1). The current account has historically recorded a small surplus in the first quarter of the year.
Wednesday 20th June
Eurozone: European Central Bank Board Member Coeuré to speak
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to speak. Markets will be looking for further evidence that Powell and the Fed have left the door open to a fourth hike this year as a result of buoyant US macro data.
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe to speak
United States: Existing home sales (May)
New Zealand: GDP (Q1). While New Zealand economic growth remains robust by developed-economy standards, year-on-year GDP growth slowed to a multi-year low of 2.9% in Q4 2017. Signs that growth rebounded in Q1 2018 are probably a necessary if not sufficient condition for the Kiwi Dollar to build on recent yet modest gains.
Thursday 21 June
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank policy meeting and press conference. The SNB is unlikely to hike interest rates, particularly as the Swiss Franc TWI has appreciated 1.5% in the past month.
United Kingdom: Bank of England policy meeting. Markets have discounted the possibility of a 25bp rate hike at this meeting but will be looking at the policy statement for signs that MPC members are inching towards a possible hike in August.
United States: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (June). This growth indicator was very strong in May and another strong print in June would add to the view that US economic growth rebounded rapidly in Q2.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney to speak
Friday 22nd June
OPEC: Semi-annual meeting in Vienna. Saudi Arabia and Russia have discussed how to boost oil production in the wake of US sanctions on Iran and collapse of the Venezuelan petroleum industry. Both Russia and Saudi Arabia have proposed plans for the OPEC+ group to add as much as 1 million barrels a day (1% of global output) although Saudi Arabia prefers a smaller increase while Iran, Venezuela and Iraq have publicly set themselves against a production increase.
Eurozone: Composite PMI (June, preliminary)
United States: Composite PMI (June, preliminary)
Sunday 24th June
Turkey: Presidential and parliamentary elections. The result is not yet a done deal although the consensus forecast is that President Erdogan will likely to be re-elected. Assuming he is, the risk is that with a renewed mandate he will try to further strengthen his control over the state apparatus and potentially the central bank given the Lira’s collapse.
