UK: Following on from yesterday’s lower-than-expected headline CPI-inflation of 2.6% yoy in February, January labour market data out in 40mn.
Focus will be on headline unemployment rate and on weekly earnings numbers but note that nominal year-on-year growth in weekly earnings (including bonuses) has been volatile in the past 10 months, ranging from 1.4 to 2.8.
Unless labour earnings are particularly weak in January (and February) I am sticking to my core scenario that the Bank of England will hike its policy rate hike 25bp at its May meeting.
