It’s a US-heavy event and calendar this week. Fed Chairperson Powell is due to speak tomorrow and then testify before the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday and Thursday. Moreover, the minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting and June CPI-inflation data are due for release on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. In the Eurozone, markets will glance at the minutes of the ECB’s June meeting to gage the extent of divisions within the ECB Board members while in the UK monthly GDP data for May are due on Wednesday.
Monday 8th July
No tier-one macro data releases scheduled
Tuesday 9th July
Australia: NAB business confidence (June)
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to speak. There is still tension between market pricing of Fed rate cuts this year (65bp) and FOMC members’ expectation of the appropriate amount of rate cuts (21bp) and Powell’s speech may shed some light on how he expects this tension to play out. There are clear implications for US asset prices, including US treasuries, equities and Dollar.
United States: FOMC members Bostic, Bullard and Quarles to speak.
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr to speak. The RBNZ was one of the first major central banks to cut its policy rate but markets have been a little more measured in recent weeks in their pricing of further RBNZ rate cuts.
Wednesday 10th July
United Kingdom: GDP (May). UK GDP contracted 0.4% mom in April, one of the weakest months on record, with UK-based companies running down inventories accumulated in the run-up to the original Brexit date of 31 March 2019. This prompted the Bank of England to forecast that GDP was unchanged in Q2 2019, while the NIESR is even more bearish forecasting a 0.2% qoq contraction. Analysts forecast a 0.3% mom rebound in GDP in May but monthly data for June suggest that the quarter ended on a weak note.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington (day one of two). Powell will first read out a prepared statement then answer questions from committee members. The questions often are beyond the scope of the Federal Reserve’s policy mandate and this testimony rarely has a meaningful impact on the Dollar.
United States: FOMC members Tenreyro and Bullard to speak.
United States: Minutes of Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting. The statement, press conference and updated forecasts provided a fair amount of information but the minutes may shed more light on the extent to which FOMC members are divided about the optimal path for the Fed’s policy rate going forward.
Thursday 11th July
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Debelle to speak
Eurozone: Minutes of European Central Bank’s June policy meeting. ECB President Draghi has made clear in recent weeks that there was scope for rate cuts and/or a resumption of quantitative easing if need be. However, there are seemingly divisions on the ECB Board as to whether, how and when monetary policy should be loosened.
United States: CPI-inflation (June). Core CPI-inflation edged lower to 2.0% yoy in May, the low end of a 10-month range of 2.0-2.2% yoy, and analysts forecast an unchanged number in June.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington (day two of two).
United States: FOMC members Williams, Bostic, Barkin and Quarles to speak.
Friday 12th July
Eurozone: Industrial production (May).
