The macro data calendar is light this week (bar Friday), particularly outside of the United States. The highlights are the release of December figures for US CPI-inflation, retail sales and industrial output as well as November data for UK GDP. A number of central bank officials are also due to speak, including Bank of England MPC members Tenreyro and Broadbent, ECB President Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell.
Monday 11th January
United Kingdom: Monetary Policy Council member Tenreyro to speak. Bank of England policy rate has been unchanged at a record low of 0.1% since late-March and there has been little talk recently of a rate cut (let alone a rate hike).
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Lagarde to speak.
United States: FOMC member Bostic to speak.
Tuesday 12th January
United Kingdom: Monetary Policy Council member Broadbent to speak.
Wednesday 13th January
United States: CPI-inflation (December). Core and headline CPI-inflation have been broadly unchanged around 1.6% yoy and 1.3% yoy respectively since August and analysts estimate little change in December.
Thursday 14th January
United Kingdom: RICS house price balance (December). The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors balance, which measures the percentage of surveyors reporting house price increases versus declines, has been above 60% since September. This is in line with other official and unofficial indices pointing to a sustained rise in UK house prices.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 14th January).
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to speak. This will be Powell’s first speech since the dramatic events of last week. He will likely try to remain apolitical but may comment on the state of the US economy and the likely impact of the $900bn stimulus package signed into law in late-December.
Friday 15th January
United Kingdom: GDP (November). GDP growth slowed to 0.4% mom in October (a 6-month low) and likely turned negative in November as large parts of the United Kingdom were subject to a tightening of social distancing rules.
United States: Retail sales (December, advance estimate). The US Dollar value of retail sales contracted 1.1% mom in November – its weakest rate of growth since April – and the consensus forecast is that retail sales contracted for a third consecutive month in December.
United States: Industrial output (December).
