There is significant event risk in the UK this week, with potentially three critical parliamentary votes on Brexit on the 12th, 13th and 14th March as well as the Chancellor’s Spring (budget) statement on Wednesday. Moreover, GDP data for January will give a first snapshot of how UK economy fared in Q1 2019 after a weak Q4.
In the US, President Trump announces his annual budget today while on the data front there are a number of tier-one releases, including retail sales (today), CPI-inflation (tomorrow), durable goods orders (Wednesday) and industrial output and the NY Fed manufacturing index (Friday).
The data calendar is light in the Eurozone, Switzerland, Australia and New Zealand this week
Monday 11th March
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Haskel to speak
United States: Retail sales (January). As is the case in many developed economies this is a volatile monthly series but the consensus forecast is for flat retail sales.
United States: President Trump is scheduled to announce his annual budget, which will reportedly include a 5% cut to non-military spending and an extra $8.6bn for his proposed border barrier. If the Democrats, which have a majority in the House of Representatives, vote against the bill this could lead to another government shutdown.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to speak. The Fed’s stance seems pretty clear at present – the Fed remains flexible, is patient, monitoring data and comfortable with current policy setting.
Tuesday 12th March
Australia: Home loans (February)
Australia: NAB Business Confidence (February)
United Kingdom: Official estimate of GDP in the three months to January 2019. While the monthly estimates of GDP growth tend to be volatile and subject to subsequent revisions, this will provide a first glimpse of how the UK economy fared in early 2019 following disappointing GDP growth of 0.2% qoq in Q4 2018.
United Kingdom: Industrial output and trade surplus (January)
United States: CPI-inflation (February). US CPI-inflation has remained steady, a point which the Fed has repeatedly emphasised, and analysts expect both headline and core CPI-inflation to have remained unchanged in February at 1.6% yoy and 2.2% yoy, respectively.
United States: FOMC member Brainard to speak.
United Kingdom: House of Commons to hold (second) meaningful vote on Prime Minister May’s draft Brexit deal. Parliament voted down the deal with a record-high majority of 230 seats on 15th January and the risk is that MPs once again vote down the Brexit deal on offer.
Wednesday 13th March
United Kingdom: Chancellor Philipp Hammond is scheduled to announce his Spring (budget) statement (sometimes referred to as the “mini-budget”). The UK’s public finances are in good health and there have been reports that the Chancellor could announce a number of spending measures (after years of fiscal austerity) and put forward a multi-billion package on the condition that parliament approves a Brexit deal. However, the bulk of the spending (and tax) initiatives are likely to be delayed until the full Autumn budget.
United Kingdom: If the House of Commons votes down the Brexit deal on 12th March, Prime Minister May has promised that parliament would have a vote (on 13th March) on whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal on 29th March.
Eurozone: ECB Board members Mersch and Angeloni to speak. They may add more colour to last week’s ECB policy meeting statement and press conference but the headline that the ECB will most likely not hike its policy rates after the summer is now out of the bag.
Eurozone: Industrial output (January)
United States: Durable goods orders (January)
Thursday 14th March
United Kingdom: If the House of Commons votes (on 13th March) against the UK leaving the EU without a deal, Prime Minister May has promised that parliament would have a vote (on 14th March) on whether the UK should extend Article 50 negotiations beyond 29th March 2019.
United States: New home sales (January)
Friday 15th March
United States: New York Fed Empire State manufacturing index (March). This index, which historically has correlated quite closely with US GDP growth, was weak in January-February (averaging only 6.4). Even if it recovers to 10.10 I March, as forecast, it would point to a further weakening of US GPD growth in Q1 2019 from 2.6% qoq annualised in Q4.
United States: Industrial output (February)
