It’s a big week for UK and US macro data releases. The UK will publish Q3 GDP along with the usual trifecta of labour market, inflation and retail sales data, all within the backdrop of early general elections on 12th December. In the US the focus will be on CPI-inflation, retail sales and manufacturing sector figures. Moreover, Fed Chairperson Powell is due to testify to the Joint Economic Committee.
In the Eurozone, there are few tier-one data releases but Q3 GDP data for Germany may show that the EU’s largest economy was in recession.
Further afield, the RBNZ policy meeting may prove a game-changer for the Kiwi Dollar given that analysts and markets are not fully convinced that the RBNZ will cut rates 25bp. Finally, in Australia, RBA Assistant Governor Debelle is due to speak while on the data front the focus will be on October labour market figures.
Monday 11th November
United Kingdom: GDP (Q3, preliminary data). Analysts forecast a rebound in GDP growth to 0.4% qoq in Q3 from -0.2% qoq in Q2. Growth in Q2 was hit by companies running down inventories ahead of the original Brexit date of 31 October. Re-stocking in Q3 likely boosted headline growth but PMI data for October point to weak UK GDP growth in early Q4.
Tuesday 12th November
Australia: NAB business confidence (October).
United Kingdom: Labour market data (September). Weekly wage growth remained robust at 3.8% yoy in August but employment fell by 56,000, pointing to some cooling in the UK labour market. Analysts forecast another fall in employment in September of 90,000.
Eurozone: German ZEW economic conditions (November). The index of economic conditions fell to a multi-year low -25.3 in October and analysts forecast only a modest rebound to -21 in November. If correct, this forecast would suggest that German GDP growth, which is forecast to have contracted in Q3, remained very weak in Q4.
Wednesday 13th November
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting, statement and press conference. The consensus forecast is that the RBNZ will cut its policy rate 25bp to 0.75% but some analysts expect rates to remain on hold and markets are only pricing in a 65% probability of a rate cut. As a result the RBNZ is likely to have an impact, even if temporary, on the Kiwi Dollar.
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (October). Analysts forecast core and headline CPI-inflation to have remained broadly unchanged at 1.7% yoy in October, below the Bank of England’s medium-term target of 2%.
Eurozone: Industrial output (September).
United States: CPI-inflation (October). Analysts expect core and headline CPI-inflation to have remained unchanged at 2.4% yoy and 1.7% yoy in October. Any material deviation from forecast is likely to impact markets’ pricing of Fed rate cuts for the remainder of the year (currently only 4bp) and in turn the Dollar.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee (day one). The Fed has cut its policy rate three times so far this year but with US economic growth having slowed in recent quarters Powell may come under pressure to explain why the Fed did not cut rates sooner and/or more aggressively.
Thursday 14th November
Australia: Labour market data (October). Total Australian employment has increased every month since July 2018, by a cumulative 375,000, but this has not stopped the RBA from cutting rates by 75bp to an all-time low of 0.75%.
Eurozone: German Q3 GDP. Weak German macro data in recent months have led analysts to forecast that GDP contracted 0.1% qoq for the second consecutive quarter, implying that the EU’s largest economy was in recession in Q3.
United Kingdom: Retail sales (October). This is a volatile series but retail sales rose only 0.3% in the previous three months.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee (day two).
United States: FOMC members Quarles, Clarida, Evans and Williams to speak. The question for markets is whether there is any appetite for a fourth Fed rate cut before year-end and if so under what conditions.
Friday 15th November
Australia: RBA Assistant Governor Debelle to speak. Governor Lowe has hinted that the RBA may keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future but markets still need some convincing.
United States: New York Empire State manufacturing index (November). This index, which has been stable in a 2-5 range for the past four months, will provide a first glimpse on how the US manufacturing sector fared in November.
United States: Retail sales (October). The Dollar-value of retail sales contracted 0.3% mom with signs that weaker consumer confidence is feeding through to household demand but this came on the back of six consecutive monthly increases in retail sales which totalled about 4%
United States: Industrial output (October).
