The data calendar is heavy for the UK and US, with both countries releasing October CPI-inflation data (Wednesday) and retail sales figures (Thursday). The US will also publish actual and forward-looking manufacturing output data, which taken in aggregate should give a clue as to how the US economy fared in early Q4, while Fed Chairperson Powell is due to speak on Thursday. In the UK and Australia labour market data are likely to confirm that while there is decent jobs creation, wage growth remains tentative at best.
Monday 12th November
United States: FOMC member Daly to speak
Tuesday 13th November
Australia: NAB Business Confidence (October)
Eurozone: German ZEW Economic sentiment (November). The index, which historically has tracked German GDP growth, fell to a multi-year low in October which does not bode well for Germany’s growth prospects in late Q3. The consensus forecast is that the index improved to -12 in November, which would suggest a recovery in growth in early Q4 albeit from disappointing levels.
United Kingdom: Labour market data (September). The focus will likely be on weekly earnings numbers, which improved slightly in August, particularly after the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Council suggested that it may have to hike rates even if the UK left the EU without a deal.
United States: FOMC members Brainard and Daly to speak
Wednesday 14th November
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (October). The fall in headline CPI-inflation to a lower-than-expected 2.4% yoy in September – the low end of a 2.4-3.1% range in place since April 2017 – had led the market to push out its expectations of a rate hike to end-2019 and pressured Sterling. The consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation rose to 2.6% yoy in October which may reignite market expectations that the BoE may not wait another 12 months before tightening interest rate policy.
United States: CPI-inflation (October). Core and in particular headline CPI-inflation in the US has been soft in the past couple of months which has in turn challenged the Federal Reserve’s outright hawkish stance and put somewhat of a brake on the Dollar’s appreciation. The consensus forecast is that CPI-inflation only edged slightly higher in October despite the more clear-cut rise in US real wage growth. The risk is to the upside given the 0.6% mom surge – the biggest in six years – in PPI-inflation in October.
United States: FOMC member Quarles to speak
Thursday 15th November
Australia: Labour market (October). The Australian economy has continued to generate jobs but little wage growth which, along with clear signs of stress in the housing market, has kept the Reserve Bank of Australia sitting on a fence when it comes to the timing of the next rate hike.
United Kingdom: Retail sales (October). This is a volatile series but the consensus forecast is that the volume of retail sales, which contracted 0.8% mom in September, fell a further 0.4% mom in October. Real wage growth is negligible and is thus unlikely to be a powerful driver of British household consumption.
United Kingdom: Monetary Policy Council Member Tenreyro to speak
United States: NY Fed and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices (November). The indices will give the market some early clues as to how US GDP growth, which slowed to 3.5% annualised in Q3, fared in early Q4.
United States: Retail sales (October). The value of retail sales has risen every month since March and analysts expect this trend to have been unbroken in October and risen 0.4% mom.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell and FOMC members Quarles, Bostic and Kashkari to speak
Friday 16th November
Eurozone: ECB President Draghi to speak
United States: Industrial output (October).
