It’s a big macro data week for both the US and the UK. In the US the focus will be on CPI-inflation, Philly Fed manufacturing, retail sales and industrial output data while a number of FOMC members are due to speak. On the other side of the pond, the main data releases are UK monthly GDP, CPI-inflation and retail sales figures. Dovish MPC member Saunders is also scheduled to speak.
The data calendar is reasonably light in the Eurozone but the ECB will publish on Thursday the minutes of its December policy meeting with ECB President Lagarde also due to speak.
Monday 13th January
United Kingdom: GDP (November). GDP was flat in October and in August-October. December data will arguably be more important, including in the eyes of the MPC, to the extent that they will capture the impact of the 12th of December general election on UK confidence, spending and investment.
Tuesday 14th January
United States: CPI-inflation (December). Headline CPI-inflation rose to an 11-month high of 2.1% yoy in November but core CPI-inflation has been relatively stable around 2.3% yoy in the past four months. So unless December data show a marked change, FOMC members are likely to stick to their current view that the Fed policy rate remains appropriate but data-dependent.
United States: FOMC Member Williams to speak.
Wednesday 15th January
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC Member Saunders to speak. MPC members Saunders and Haskel voted for a 25bp rate cut at both the November and December policy meetings and Saunders is likely to reiterate (or even reinforce) his dovish views.
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (December). Headline and core CPI-inflation, respectively 1.5% yoy and 1.7% yoy in November, remain below the Bank of England’s 2% target and this has contributed to the dovish turn by Governor Carney and MPC members Tenreyro and Vlieghe in the past three days.
Eurozone: Industrial output (November).
United States: FOMC Member Harker to speak.
US-China: The two countries are due to sign the Phase One trade deal. Focus has now turned to a broader Phase Two trade deal.
Thursday 16th January
Eurozone: ECB to publish the minutes of its 12th December monetary policy meeting. The ECB has not materially changed tact since Christine Lagarde took over from ECB President Draghi but markets have taken the Euro lower. ECB President Lagarde is also due to speak on Thursday 16th January.
United States: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (January). This is one of the first US data releases for the month of January and will give a sense of how the US economy started off the first quarter of 2020. This index of US manufacturing activity hit a 6-month low of 2.4 in December and analysts forecast only a modest rebound to 3.8 in January.
United States: Retail sales (December). The $-value of retail sales rose only 0.2% mom in November and in year-on-year terms growth slowed from 4.4% in August to (a still reasonable) 3.3% in November.
United States: FOMC Member Bowman to speak.
Friday 17th January
United Kingdom: Retail sales (December). Retail sales contracted 0.6% mom in November, with UK consumers seemingly delaying major purchases ahead of the 12th December general elections. But recent BRC data point to a rebound in consumer spending in December and analysts indeed forecast a 0.6% mom increase in retail sales.
United States: Building permits and housing starts (December).
United States: Industrial output (December). This volatile data series tends to correlate quite closely with the broader (and more stable) measure of US GDP growth. Industrial output surged 1.1% mom in November but analysts expect a 0.1% mom contraction in December.
United States: FOMC Members Harker and Quarles to speak.
