Market focus this week is likely to be on labour market data in the UK and Australia, German figures for GDP growth in Q1 and economic sentiment in April. In the US, retail sales data for April and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing indices for May will give markets a clearer sense of how the US economy fared in early Q2, as will the steady stream of FOMC members due to speak.
Monday 13th May
Australia: RBA Assistant Governor Debelle to speak. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its policy rate on hold but is seemingly focusing on future developments in the labour market.
United States: FOMC members Clarida, Kaplen and Rosengren to speak.
Tuesday 14th May
Australia: NAB Business Confidence Index (April)
United Kingdom: Labour market data (March). With the unemployment rate at a multi-decade low of 3.9% the focus is likely to be on whether real earnings growth has continued to edge higher from around 1.6% yoy in the previous three months.
Eurozone: German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April). This index has gradually improved since last October and analysts expect a further but modest improvement to 5.1 from 3.1 in March.
United States: FOMC members Williams, George and Daly to speak.
Wednesday 15th May
Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index (May).
Eurozone: German GDP (Q1, first estimate). Germany narrowly avoided a recession in the second half of 2018 when GDP contracted 0.2% qoq in Q3 and was flat in Q4. Analysts forecast that growth rebounded further in Q1 2019 to 0.4% qoq, in line with GDP growth in the Eurozone (for which data were released last week).
United States: Retail sales (April). Retail sales growth has been buoyed by rising real wage growth but held back by tepid US consumer confidence. The rebound in the Conference Board consumer Confidence Index in April suggests that retail sales growth may be on a surer footing.
United States: New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (May). This index, which has historically been a useful forward-looking indicator for US economic growth, has been volatile since December and yet US GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% seasonally annualised in Q1 from 2.2% in Q4.
United States: Industrial output (April)
United States: FOMC members Quarles and Barkin to speak.
Eurozone: ECB Board members Coeure and Praet to speak.
Thursday 16th May
Australia: Labour market data (April). The RBA has suggested that these data are key to the future outlook for interest rates. The Australian economy created a decent 70,000 jobs in Q1 but as always the market’s focus will be on the breakdown between full-time and part-time jobs.
Australia: RBA Assistant Governor Bullock to speak.
United States: Building permits and housing starts a (April)
United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May). Like the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Philly Fed manufacturing index has historically been a useful forward-looking indicator for US economic growth.
United States: FOMC members Kashkari, Brainard and Haskel to speak.
Friday 17th May
United States: FOMC members Williams and Clarida to speak.
