It’s a big week for the US and UK with both due to release CPI-inflation and retail sales data for August. The US and Eurozone will also publish industrial output numbers while UK and Australia will release labour market figures.
Monday 13th September
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Lagarde and Board member Schnabel to speak.
Tuesday 14th September
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe and Assistant Governor Ellis to speak.
United Kingdom: Labour market data (July-August). The issue in the UK has not been labour demand, which remains strong, but on the contrary chronic labour shortages (along with supply-chain bottlenecks) which have weighed on output and ultimately headline growth.
United States: CPI-inflation (August). This data release will likely be a focal point for markets. Consensus forecast is that core and headline CPI-inflation fell to respectively 4.2% yoy and 5.3% yoy from 4.3% and 5.4% yoy in July.
Wednesday 15th September
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (August). CPI-inflation fell more than expected in July but consensus forecast is that it rebounded sharply in August, in part due to unfavourable base effects. Analysts estimate that core and headline CPI-inflation both jumped to 2.9% yoy from respectively 1.9% yoy and 2.0% yoy in July. Some MPC members have warned that headline CPI-inflation could reach 4% in Q4.
Eurozone: Industrial output (July).
United States: New York Empire State manufacturing index (September). An early indication of how the US manufacturing sector fared in the first half of September.
United States: Industrial output (August).
New Zealand: GDP (Q2). Consensus forecast is that GDP growth only slowed marginally in Q2 to 1.3% qoq from 1.6% qoq in Q1. A perhaps bigger question is how GDP fared in Q3 after the country was once again put into lockdown.
Thursday 16thSeptember
Australia: Labour market data (August). Employment growth slowed sharply in June and July (to only 29,100 and 2,200 jobs respectively) and the consensus forecast is that the economy shed 80,000 jobs in August as a result of the ongoing state-wide lockdowns in Australia.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 16th September).
United States: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (September).
United States: Retail sales (August, preliminary data). USD-value of retail sales contracted 1.1% mom in July (following a +0.7% mom gain in June) and analysts estimate they fell a further 1% mom in August. This would be the first back-to-back monthly falls since November-December 2020.
Friday 17th September
United Kingdom: Retail sales (August). Volume of retail sales fell 2.5% mom in July with the sharp correction attributed to consumers shifting their spending from goods to services, a pick-up in Covid-19 cases in early July, very poor weather (which depressed fuel sales) and the Euro-2020 football championship. The consensus forecast is that UK retail sales only rebounded 0.5% mom in August.
