The data release calendar is light this week outside of the UK and the US.
In the UK, the House of Commons is due to vote on the draft Brexit deal on Tuesday, which is likely to overshadow the normally important CPI-inflation data (Wednesday) and retail sales figures (Friday).
Focus in the US will be on a number FOMC members due to speak as well as Philadelphia and NY Fed manufacturing indices for January and industrial output for December. Note that the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau are still not updating their websites or publishing economic data during the ongoing partial government shutdown, including key figures on housing market and retail sales.
Monday 14th January
Eurozone: Industrial output (November).
Tuesday 15th January
United Kingdom: House of Commons vote on draft Brexit deal. There will be a number of other parliamentary votes beforehand, which could ultimately result in the House of Commons not holding a vote on whether to approve the draft Withdrawal Agreement and outline of future relationship between UK and EU. If the vote goes ahead, expectation is that the draft deal will be voted down. In this scenario, the UK could leave the EU without a deal on 29th March although there appears to be strong political and popular opposition to the UK reverting to WTO standards.
Eurozone: ECB President Draghi to speak.
United States: New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index (January). This will be one of the first macro releases for Q1 2019. This important index fell to 18.4 in Q4 2018 from 22.4 in Q3, suggesting that US GDP growth slowed further from 3.5% qoq annualised in Q3.
United States: FOMC members Kashkari, George and Kaplan to speak. FOMC members have recently been rather uniform in their view that the Fed may not need to hike rates further but that ultimately macro data will guide their future decisions.
Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment (January)
Wednesday 16th January
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney speaks. He has in the past been vocal on the issue of Brexit.
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (December). Consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation fell to a 23-month low of 2.1% yoy in December while core CPI-inflation was unchanged at 1.8% yoy. The uncertainty generated by Brexit developments has put any Bank of England rate hikes on hold and another set of soft inflation data would give the central bank another reason to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future.
United States: Retail sales (December). Data release by US Census Bureau pending end of government shutdown (see above).
United States: FOMC member Kashkari to speak
Thursday 17th January
Eurozone: ECB board member Lautenschlaeger to speak
United States: Building permits, housing starts and new home sales (December). Data release by US Census Bureau pending end of government shutdown (see above).
United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January). Like the Empire State index due for release on 15th January, this data point will provide the first indication of how US economic growth fared in early Q1 2019. The index slowed to 14.8 in Q4 from 20.1 in Q3.
United States: FOMC member Quarles to speak
Friday 18th January
United Kingdom: Retail sales (December). There have been mixed reports about the health of UK retail sales in the run-up and after Christmas but consensus forecast is that they shrunk 0.8% mom in December. This would partly erase the 1.4% mom gain in November. In any case this data release is likely to play second fiddle to Brexit-related developments.
United States: Industrial output (December). The consensus forecast is that output rose 0.3% mom, which would make it the seventh consecutive monthly increase.
