While the Brexit calendar is (for now) light this week, it’s a big week for UK macro data releases with labour market, inflation and retail sales figures due for release. Bank of England governor Carney is also due to speak on Wednesday.
Eurozone and US economic activity data for April will also provide an initial indication on how these economies fared in early Q2 2019 after growth likely stabilised in Q1.
There are few data releases scheduled on Easter Friday.
Monday 15th April
United States: New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (April). Will provide a first glimpse on how the US economy fared in April. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow currently estimates that US GDP growth was broadly unchanged in Q1 at around 2.3% qoq annualised. If this estimate proves correct would likely support the Federal Reserve’s current wait-and-see approach.
United States: FOMC member Evans to speak
Tuesday 16th April
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia to release minutes of it s March policy meeting. The RBA, like the Fed, seems to be in a wait-and-see mode with regards to its policy rate.
United Kingdom: Labour market data (February). The UK labour market remains tight, with the economy still creating jobs at a brisk pace. More importantly perhaps, real weekly earnings – which had flat-lined since 2016 – started to pick up in July 2018 even if growth remains modest (about 1.5% yoy).
Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April). This indicator of German economic activity has gradually improved from a multi-year low of -24.7 in October to -3.6 in March and analysts forecast a further improvement to +0.9 – which would be the first positive figure since last March.
United States: Industrial output (March)
Eurozone: ECB Board member Nowotny to speak
United States: FOMC members Rosengren and Kaplan to speak.
New Zealand: CPI-inflation (Q1). CPI-inflation in New Zealand was stable at 1.9% yoy in Q3 and Q4 2019, but this did not stop the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from turning more dovish and predicting that its next move was more likely to be a rate cut then a rate hike. Analysts forecast a slowdown in headline CPI-inflation to 1.7% yoy in Q1 2019.
Wednesday 17th April
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (March). Core and headline CPI-inflation have been stable around 1.9% yoy in recent months and analysts expect only an incremental increase in March. This would be unlikely to sway the Bank of England either way.
Eurozone: Trade balance (February)
United States: Trade balance (February). The trade deficit narrowed from a multi-year high of $59.9bn in December to $51.1bn in January but this would have been little comfort to US President Trump and analysts forecast that the deficit widened again to $53.5bn in February.
United Kingdom: Bank of England governor Mark Carney to speak. The Bank of England has left the door open to rate hikes should the UK remain in the EU or the UK leave the EU with a deal in place. Carney may also comment on the extent to which the likely recovery in UK GDP growth in Q1 has impacted his thinking.
United States: FOMC members Harker and Bullard to speak.
Thursday 18th April
Australia: Labour market data (March). The Australian economy only created 4,600 jobs in February but analysts expect this figure to have rebounded to 15,200 in March. As always, markets will be focusing on the breakdown between full-time and part-time jobs.
Switzerland: Trade balance (March)
Eurozone: Composite PMI (April, preliminary release). This forward-looking indicator of Eurozone economic activity was in free-fall in 2018 but edged higher from 51.0 in January 2019 to 51.6 in March – suggesting in turn that GDP growth may have stabilised in Q1, albeit at low levels.
United Kingdom: Retail sales (March). Retail sales growth has gradually picked up from 2.2% yoy in October to 4.0% yoy in February, pointing to decent underlying UK household demand. Analyst forecast growth to have risen further to a 28-month high of 4.6% yoy in March.
United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)
United States: Retail sales (March). This is a volatile data series but the underlying trend has been one of weakening growth in the volume of US retail sales despite rising growth in aggregate weekly earnings.
United States: FOMC member Bostic to speak
Friday 19th April
Easter Friday
United States: Building permits and housing starts (March)
