In the US, the focus – which last week was squarely on the Federal Reserve – will once again turn to macro data and in particular the release of the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices, retail sales and industrial output data. It is also a big week for the UK, with the trilogy of labour market, inflation and retail sales data due for release. In Australia, the much-focussed on labour data are due to be published while in New Zealand the only release of note are Q2 inflation numbers.
Monday 15th July
United States: NY Empire State Manufacturing index (July). This index of economic activity in the US manufacturing will provide the first glimpse of how US economic growth fared in early Q3. The consensus forecast is that the index recovered to 0.50 after a 3-year low of -8.6 in June.
New Zealand: CPI-inflation (Q2). The fall in CPI-inflation in Q1 to just 1.5% yoy in Q1 likely contributed to the RBNZ’s decision to cut its policy rate 25bp on 7th May but analysts expect CPI-inflation to have bounced back to 1.7% yoy in Q2.
Tuesday 16th July
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes. The RBA cut its policy rate 25bp in July for the second consecutive month (to 1.00%) and the release of the minutes of its July meeting may shed some light on whether the RBA is even contemplating of making it three rate cuts in a row. It has made clear in recent months that the strength or weakness of the labour market will be key.
United Kingdom: Labour market (May). The UK labour market has remained strong, with the unemployment rate only 3.8%, but this has not yet translated into strong wage growth. In real terms, weekly wages rose only 1.5% yoy in February-April.
Eurozone: German ZEW economic sentiment (July). Economic sentiment in the Eurozone’s largest economy fell to a 7-month low in June of -21.1 and analysts forecast little or no recovery in July.
United States: FOMC member Bostic to speak.
United States: Retail sales (June). in real terms, US retail sales increased only 0.4% in the past two months, with the year-on-year rate slowing to just 1.1% yoy in May.
United States: Industrial output (June).
Wednesday 17th July
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (June). Headline CPI-inflation has hovered around the Bank of England’s 2% target since February and analysts forecast that it remained unchanged at 2.0% yoy in June. However, the Bank of England is having to look at the bigger picture, namely the negative impact of Brexit-related uncertainty on UK growth and the risk of the UK exiting the EU without a deal.
United States: Building permits and housing starts (June).
Thursday 18th July
Australia: Labour market data (June). The RBA has stressed the importance of developments in the labour market when making policy rate decisions. The Australian economy created a healthy 96,000 jobs in March-May but this did not stop the RBA cutting rates at both its June and July meetings. If the consensus forecast of 10,000 jobs created in June proves correct, this may not impress the RBA much.
Switzerland: Trade balance (June). The slow rise in the Swiss trade surplus in recent months has likely helped buoy the Swiss France.
United Kingdom: Retail sales (June). This has typically been a reasonably volatile series but retail sales contracted in both preceding months. The weakness in consumer demand has contributed to bearish forecasts for UK GDP growth in Q2 and analysts forecast a third monthly contraction in retail sales, of 0.3% mom, in June.
United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)
Friday 19th July
United States: FOMC members Bullard and Rosengren to speak.
