The data and events calendar is again heavy this week. The US is due to release manufacturing index data for June and retail sales and industrial output for May. The UK will publish its usual trifecta of labour market, CPI-inflation and retail sales figures as well as the now-closely followed claimant numbers (for May). In Australia the focus will likely be on employment and retail sales numbers for May.
On the policy front, Fed Chairperson is due to testify to Congress on 16-17 June while a number of FOMC members are due to speak. Analysts expect the Bank of England to announce a £100bn increase in its asset-purchase program at its policy meeting on Thursday. The Swiss National Bank will likely keep its policy rate on hold at -0.75%.
Monday 15th June
United States: NY Empire State manufacturing index (June). One of the first indicators of how the US economy faired in the first half of June. Manufacturing activity rebounded in May, with the index rising to
-48.5 from a record-low -78.5 in April and analysts forecast a further rise to -27.50 in June.
United States: FOMC members Kaplan and Daily to speak
Tuesday 16th June
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia to release minutes of its latest policy meeting.
United Kingdom: Claimant count (May). An extra 857,000 workers (a record-high) claimed benefits (mostly for unemployment) in April, taking the total to 2.1 million but it remains unclear to what extent this reflects the government’s measure to ease access to universal credit.
United Kingdom: Labour market data (February-April). These data will only partly capture the impact of lockdown measures introduced on 23rd March. Moreover, employees covered by the government furlough scheme (which pays out 80% of wages up to £2,500 per month) will still be considered as being employed despite not being at work. Therefore data on weekly hours worked and average earnings may prove more insightful.
Eurozone: German ZEW current conditions index (June).
United States: Retail sales (May). Analysts forecast a strong rebound in May of 8.0% mom but from a very low base with retail sales having contracted 8.3% mom in March and a record 16.4% mom in April.
United States: Industrial output (May). It’s a similar picture as for retail sales with industrial output expected to have rebounded 3.9% mom in May following contractions of 5.5% mom in March and 13.7% mom in April.
United States: Federal Chairperson Powell semi-annual economic testimony to Congress (two days)
United States: FOMC member Clarida to speak
Wednesday 17th June
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (May). Analysts forecast that depressed economic activity will have weighed further on core and headline CPI-inflation in May, forecasting 1.2% yoy and 0.5% yoy respectively.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (May).
Eurozone: ECB Board members Mersch and de Guindos to speak
United States: Building permits and housing starts (May).
United States: FOMC member Mester to speak
New Zealand: GDP (Q1). These data will be regarded as old, particularly as most developed economies have already released Q1 data. Nevertheless they will provide the starting point for a contraction which will likely accelerated in Q2. Analysts forecast that GDP contracted 0.9% qoq in Q1.
Thursday 18th June
Australia: Employment data (May). Total employment fell by a record 594,300 in April and is forecast to have fallen a further 125,000 in May.
Switzerland: Trade balance (May)
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank policy meeting. Policy rate expected to remain unchanged at -0.75%.
United Kingdom: Bank of England policy meeting. The consensus forecast is that the Bank of England will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.1% but increase the size of its QE program by £100bn to £725bn.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week till 18th June).
United States: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (June).
Friday 19th June
Australia: Retail sales (May)
United Kingdom: Retail sales (May). The volume of retail sales contracted by a record 18.1% mom in April – the first full month of national lockdown – but is expected to have rebounded 5.8% mom in May.
United States: FOMC members Rosengren, Quarles and Mester to speak
