It’s a big data week for the US and UK.
In the US, NY Fed and Philly Fed manufacturing data for December will help complete the US macro picture for Q4, as will November industrial output, personal income and consumer spending figures
With the UK general election out of the way, markets may well refocus on UK macro data and this week sees the release of composite PMI, CPI-inflation, labour market and retail sales numbers. The Bank of England also holds its policy meeting on Thursday.
New Zealand is due to release Q3 current account and GDP data as well as important international trade figures whereas in Australia the focus will be on key labour market data due out on Thursday.
Monday 16th December
United Kingdom: Composite PMI (December, preliminary). This leading index of economic activity in the UK has been hovering around 50 in recent months, pointing to little or no economic growth. Indeed the UK’s GDP was broadly unchanged between April and October.
United States: New York Empire State manufacturing index (December). This indicator has been remarkably stable between 2 and 5 since July, as was US GDP growth at about 2.0% qoq annualised in Q2 and Q3. Moreover, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker currently estimates that US growth was broadly unchanged in Q4.
Tuesday 17th December
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes
United Kingdom: Labour market data (October). The UK labour market has shown signs of cooling in recent months with total employment having fallen by nearly 60,000 in the previous three months.
United States: Building permits and housing starts (November).
United States: Industrial output (November). US GDP growth correlates closely with admittedly more volatile domestic industrial output. Analysts forecast that the 0.8% mom contraction in October was reversed in November.
New Zealand: Current account balance (Q3).
Wednesday 18th December
Eurozone: German Ifo Business Climate index (December). This lead indicator of the business climate in the Eurozone’s largest economy has stabilised around 95 in recent months but German economic growth likely remained very weak in Q4.
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (November). Analysts forecast that headline and core CPI-inflation fell slightly in November to 1.4% yoy and 1.6% yoy, respectively. If correct, this is unlikely to materially change the Bank of England’s thinking with the Monetary Policy Council likely to remain on hold until it has greater clarity on whether and when the UK will officially leave the EU and the initial terms and conditions of a new trade deal with the EU.
New Zealand: GDP (Q3). GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 0.4% qoq in Q3 from 0.5% qoq in Q2, which would mean that economic growth was on a par with growth in Australia and the US.
New Zealand: Trade balance (November). The trade deficit has been shrinking thanks in part to rising food exports (including of meat to China) which has provided some support for the Kiwi Dollar.
Thursday 19th December
Australia: Labour market data (November). The Australian economy shed 19,000 in October – the first decline in total employment since August 2018 – which has contributed to markets pricing in a further RBA rate cut next year. Analysts forecast that employment rebounded by 14,000 in November but as always the breakdown between full-time and part-time jobs will be important.
Switzerland: Trade balance (November)
United Kingdom: Retail sales (November). Retail sales contracted 0.4% in the previous three months, but analyst forecast a 0.3% mom rebound in November.
United Kingdom: Bank of England policy meeting. Two of the nine Monetary Policy Council members voted for a 25bp rate cut at the previous meeting, which took markets by surprise. This is the first policy meeting since last week’s general election and it is probably too early to expect the Bank of England to have materially changed tact.
United States: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (December).
Friday 20th December
United States: Personal income, spending and PCE prices (November). This is an important release, which perhaps does not get the attention it deserves, given the importance of consumer spending in driving headline US GDP growth. Real consumer spending growth slowed to only 0.1% mom in October.
