The data and events calendar is heavy for the UK, with the Office of National Statistics due to release August inflation and retail sales data. MPC member Haldane is also due to speak and the opposition Labour Party Conference starts on Sunday. Moreover, EU leaders will be informally meeting to discuss Brexit negotiations.
European Central Bank President Draghi is due to make a number of speeches this week but is unlikely to deviate much from the ECB’s core message following week’s policy meeting. On the macro front preliminary Eurozone PMI numbers for September will be of interest. In the US the focus will be on the NY Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices for September as well as August housing figures. The Swiss National Bank is unlikely to hike rates but could sound a tad more hawkish. Finally New Zealand will release Q2 data for the current account and GDP.
Monday 17th September
United States: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September). Typically correlates strongly with US GDP growth. Consensus forecast is for 23.20 in September and about 24 in Q3 which would again point to still robust GDP growth following 4% qoq annualised in Q2.
Eurozone: ECB Board Member Mersch to speak
Tuesday 18th September
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting minutes to be released. The broad message is likely to be that the RBA sees no compelling reason at this stage to consider a change in policy rates although it may again acknowledge some strengthening of the Australian labour market.
Eurozone: ECB President Draghi to speak. With the ECB having held its policy meeting last week Draghi is unlikely to say anything materially new.
New Zealand: Current account (Q2).
Wednesday 19th September
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC Member Haldane to speak . Haldane is not regarded as one of the more hawkish of the nine MPC members.
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (August). Consensus forecast is that year-on-year headline and core CPI-inflation fell to 2.4% and 1.8%, respectively, from 2.5% and 1.9% in July. This would be another argument against the Bank of England needing to hike rates in coming months.
European Union: Start of informal two-day Summit of Heads of State or Government in Salzburg, chaired by Austrian Federal Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and European Council President Donald Tusk. Past and future progress on Brexit negotiation is likely to top the agenda.
Eurozone: ECB President Draghi to speak
New Zealand: GDP (Q2). The consensus forecast is that GDP growth rose to 0.8% qoq in Q2 from 0.5% qoq in Q1 but these are ultimately “old” data points and may not provide the Kiwi Dollar with much of an uplift.
Thursday 20th September
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy meeting and release of Monetary Policy Assessment. The SNB is unlikely to hike its policy rate but may sound more upbeat following the recent release of decent Swiss macro data, including Q2 GDP.
United Kingdom: Retail sales (August). Consensus forecast is that the volume of retail sales fell 0.1% mom after a 0.7% mom jump in July driven in part by spending during the FIFA World Cup. This is a typically volatile series and the VISA spending index points to strong consumer demand in August but Sterling may still temporarily dip.
United States: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September). Like the NY Empire State index typically correlates strongly with US GDP growth and consensus forecast is for a jump in the index to 16.3 from 11.9 in August. But this would imply a fall in the index in Q3 (from Q2) and point to a (modest) slowdown in US GDP growth from 4% qoq annualised in Q2.
Germany: Bundesbank President Weidmann to speak. He is a known hawk but has been outflanked by more moderate voices within the ECB
US-China: New round of trade negotiations tentatively due to start if US and/or China do not announce new rounds of tariffs beforehand
Friday 21St September
Eurozone: Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (September, Preliminary). This measure of economic activity in manufacturing and services is expected to have broadly flat-lined in September and in Q3, which would suggests that Eurozone GDP growth did not rise much in the current quarter.
Sunday 23rd September
United Kingdom: Start of opposition Labour Party Conference
