It’s another big week for the United States in terms of macro data releases which include ISM PMI and labour market data for January and external trade figures for December. In the Eurozone the focus will be on preliminary Q4 GDP and January CPI-inflation figures. The data calendar is light in the United Kingdom but the Bank of England’s policy meeting will get some attention, as will the UK’s ongoing vaccination program.
Like the Bank of England the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at a record-low of 0.10%. Australia is also due to release external trade and retail sales data for December.
Monday 1st February
Switzerland: Retail sales (December).
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (January). This timely indicator of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector has been rising since April and hit a 27-month high in December 2020 of 60.5.
United States: FOMC members Bostic and Rosengren to speak.
Tuesday 2nd February
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting and statement. The RBA is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at a record-low of 0.10%.
Eurozone: GDP (Q4 preliminary flash estimate). GDP growth rebounded to 12.7% qoq (seasonally-adjusted) in Q3 but likely slowed sharply in Q4 partly as a result of markedly tighter social distancing measures, including the (re)introduction of national lockdowns.
New Zealand: Labour market data (Q4).
Wednesday 3rd February
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (January, flash estimate). Headline CPI-inflation has been in deflationary territory since August at around -0.3% yoy.
United States: ADP non-farm, private sector employment data (January). This unofficial measure saw employment fall by 123,000 in December, the first monthly fall since the 19.6 million collapse in April.
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (January). This timely indicator of economic activity in the critical US services sector has been pretty stable around 57 since June.
Thursday 4th February
Australia: External trade data (December).
Eurozone: Retail sales (December).
United Kingdom: Bank of England policy meeting. The consensus forecast is that the Monetary Policy Council will leave its policy rate unchanged at its record low of 0.10%. However, the MPC statement may be on the dovish side given the double-dip in UK economic growth and it is not inconceivable that a couple of the nine MPC members will vote in favour of a rate cut.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 4th February)
United States: FOMC member Daily to speak.
Friday 5th February
Australia: Retail sales (December).
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak.
United States: Labour market data (January). The US economy shed 140,000 (non-farm sector) jobs in December, the first contraction in employment since April when the US shed a record 20.7 million jobs. The consensus forecast is that employment rose by 50,000 in January and that the US unemployment rate was stable at 6.7% but that hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.3% mom from 0.8% mom in December.
United States: Goods and services external trade data (December). The consensus forecast is that the trade deficit shrunk from a record-high $68.1bn in November to $65.7bn in December.
