It’s another big week on the US macro data front, with ISM PMI and labour market data for February due for release. In the UK the focus will be on the budget announcement on Wednesday while in the Eurozone CPI-inflation data for February will likely be in the spotlight.
It’s also a critical week for Australia, with the RBA meeting tomorrow and GDP, external trade and retail sales data on the macro calendar.
Monday 1st March
Australia: Home loans (January).
Switzerland: Retail sales (January).
United Kingdom: Bank of England credit data (January). This data release probably does not get the attention it deserves as data on the amount of cash saved and borrowed by the private sector are arguably key in shaping the timing and magnitude of a recovery in the UK economy.
United States: FOMC members Brainard and Williams to speak.
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (February). This index of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector has been trending higher since May but is expected to have been broadly unchanged in February at 58.8.
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Lagarde to speak.
Tuesday 2nd March
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting, statement and press conference. The RBA is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at a record-low 0.10%, with markets likely to instead focus on any tweaks to its QE program and appetite, however meagre, to at least start thinking of policy rate hikes.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (February, preliminary data).
United States: FOMC members Brainard and Daily to speak.
Wednesday 3rd March
Australia: GDP (Q4). GDP rebounded 3.3% qoq in Q3 and is expected to have expanded a further 2.5% qoq in the last quarter of 2020.
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (February).
United Kingdom: Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak to deliver budget to parliament (around 12.30 local time). The government has already pre-announced (via mainstream media) the bulk of its planned tax and spend measures and while there are often surprises on the day of the announcement history suggests that Sterling may not react much.
United States: ADP employment data (February). This unofficial measure saw private-sector employment rise by 174,000 in January and the consensus forecast is that it rose by a further 168,000 in February.
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (February). This index of economic activity in the important US service sector has edged higher in the past two months, hitting in January its strongest level since early 2019. However, analysts expect the index to have moved sideways last month.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Monetary Policy Council Member Tenreyro to speak.
United States: FOMC member Evans to speak.
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr to speak.
Thursday 4th March
Australia: External trade data (January)
Australia: Retail sales (January)
Eurozone: Retail sales (January)
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 4th March).
Friday 5th March
United States: Labour market data (February). As always there will be an avalanche of data for analysts to dissect but markets will likely in a first instance focus on the headline non-farm payroll employment figure. Analysts expect the US economy to have created 180,000 jobs (entirely in the private sector) and for the US unemployment rate to have been unchanged at 6.3%.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Monetary Policy Council Member Haskel to speak.
