Focus this week will be on PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors in the UK, US, Eurozone and globally. The US will also be releasing its all-import labour market data, both for the private sector and overall economy, while a number of Federal Reserve members – including Chairperson Powell – are due to speak.
The Eurozone and Australia will also release retail sales numbers for August, with Australia also due to publish international trade data. In the UK, politics will likely take centre stage given the ongoing annual conference of the ruling Conservative Party.
Monday 1St October
United Kingdom: Ruling Conservative Party annual conference. The key topic of a gathering due to continue till 3rd October will clearly be Brexit with party leader and Prime Minister May under pressure to convince party delegates that her post-Brexit plan is viable and enjoys support both at home and within the EU.
Global: Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September. This index has historically correlated closely with global GDP growth.
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI index (September). This gauge of US manufacturing activity has oscillated between 57 and 61.3in the past year and the consensus forecast is for only a modest fall to 60.1 from 61.3 in August. This would point to still robust US economic growth in Q3.
United States: FOMC member Rosengren to speak
Tuesday 2nd October
United States: Fed Chairperson Powell and FOMC member Quarles to speak.
Wednesday 3rd October
Global: Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September.
United Kingdom: Services PMI (September). An important indicator for the health of the large UK services sector. Consensus forecast is for a small dip to 54.0 from 54.3 in August but an upward surprise would reinforce forecasts that UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% qoq in Q3 from 0.4% qoq in Q2 even if the Bank of England is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged for the foreseeable future.
Eurozone: Composite PMI (September, final).
Eurozone: Retail sales (August)
United States: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (September). This measure of private-sector employment in the US is an important precursor to the much focussed non-farm payrolls data out on Friday 5th October (see below).
United States: ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (September).
United States: FOMC members Barkin, Brainard, Evans and Mester to speak.
Thursday 4th October
Australia: Trade balance (August).
Eurozone: ECB Board Member Coeure to speak. He poured cold water last week on ECB President Draghi’s more bullish assessment of Eurozone inflation.
United States: FOMC member Quarles to speak.
Friday 5th October
Australia: Retail sales (August).
United States: Labour market data (September). Consensus forecast is that US economy continued to generate new jobs at a decent clip of +185,000 and that the unemployment rate fell to a new record low of 3.8%. The pace of wage growth, which has picked up a tad in recent months, will if anything be even more telling about the strength of the US labour market.
United States: Trade balance (August, final)
