This week’s calendar is heavy with central bank related developments. Central banks in the US, Eurozone and Australia will release the minutes of their recent policy meetings while Powell, Carney, Draghi and Lowe are all due to speak, as are a large number of their central banks’ policy members.
On the data front, the attention will likely fall on German IFO business climate, Eurozone composite PMI, UK inflation and retail sales and US durable goods orders. New Zealand also releases Q1 retail sales and April trade data.
Monday 20th May
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Broadbent to speak
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to speak (midnight UK time).
United States: FOMC members Clarida, Harker and Williams to speak.
Tuesday 21st May
Australia: Release of minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. With markets eyeing a possible 25bp rate cut in June, the minutes of the RBA’s 7th May meeting will likely get some attention.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney and MPC members Saunders and Tenreyro to speak. Carney and a number of MPC members have in recent weeks argued that modest rate hikes were still possible (and advisable) in the event of an orderly Brexit. The question therefore is what constitutes an “orderly” Brexit and the odds of the government being able to deliver such an outcome.
European Union: European Central Bank board member de Guindos to speak
United States: Existing home sales (April).
United States: FOMC members Evans and Rosengren to speak.
New Zealand: Retail sales (Q1). New Zealand has posted positive quarterly retail sales growth since Q1 2014 and the consensus forecast is for a 0.6% increase in Q1 2019. However, this has not stopped the RBNZ from being amongst the most dovish major central banks.
Wednesday 22nd May
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe to speak.
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Draghi and board member Praet to speak
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (April). Consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation rose to 2.2% yoy from 1.9% yoy in March but that the perhaps more important core measure remained stable within the 1.8-1.9% yoy range in place since last June.
United States: FOMC members Bullard, Williams and Bostic to speak.
United States: Federal Reserve to release minutes of its 1st May policy meeting.
Thursday 23rd May
European Union: European Parliament elections. These normally receive only limited market attention but on this occasion the performance of the UK’s ruling Conservative Party will likely be viewed as a barometer of British voters’ trust in the Prime Minister and her party and of voters’ attitudes towards Brexit. Elections will take place over two days with preliminary official result expected on Saturday
European Union: German IFO business climate index (May). This index has been broadly stable since January and analysts forecast little change in May.
European Union: Composite PMI (May, preliminary numbers). The composite Purchasing Managers Index has broadly stable since January, suggesting that eurozone GDP growth in early Q2 remained modest around 0.4% qoq.
United Kingdom: Retail sales (April). Retail sales rose a solid 4.8% yoy and 1.5% qoq in Q1 and the April data will give markets and analysts a first glimpse as to whether this strong growth carried over to early Q2.
European Union: European Central Bank board member de Guindos and Nowotny to speak.
European Union: European Central Bank to release minutes of its 10th April policy meeting.
United States: New home sales (April).
United States: FOMC members Barkin, Daly, Kaplan and Bostic to speak.
New Zealand: Trade balance (April)
Friday 24th May
United States: Durable goods orders (April)
