The data and events calendar is light today but picks up tomorrow before peaking on Friday.
In the US, the focus will be on Fed Chairperson Powell’s testimony (Tuesday), US housing market data, preliminary Q4 GDP numbers (Thursday), personal income, spending and prices data and the non-manufacturing ISM (Friday). In the UK politics and Brexit are likely to continue hogging the headlines but manufacturing PMI figures due on Friday may get some airtime. The Eurozone calendar is reasonably light but a number of ECB board members are due to speak and preliminary CPI-inflation data for February are due out Friday. In Switzerland, Q4 GDP data will likely get some attention following a 0.2% qoq contraction in Q3.
Monday 25th February
United States: FOMC member Clarida to speak.
Tuesday 26th February
United States: Building permits and housing starts (December). US housing data have come under greater scrutiny as cracks start to appear in the until recently robust housing market.
Eurozone: ECB Board member Mersch to speak. The ECB has increasingly highlighted the risks to Eurozone economic growth without going as far as announcing a likely delay to the start of ECB rate hikes.
United States: Conference Board Consumer Confidence index (February). Consumer confidence has fallen for four consecutive months but analysts expect a decent rebound in the index (to 125) in February.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to testify on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee. The testimony is in two parts – the first is a prepared statement, then the committee conducts a question and answer session. Expect Powell to reiterate the Fed’s neutral view on monetary policy in the face of slowing US and global growth and muted US inflationary pressures.
New Zealand: Trade data (January)
Wednesday 27th February
United Kingdom: Members of Parliament to have another opportunity to table alternative proposals for the next steps in the Brexit process. Prime Minister May has (again) postponed a meaningful House of Commons vote on the draft Brexit deal to no later than 13th March but MPs will this week have the chance to put forward motions to amend the bill which may include postponing the UK’s exit from the EU beyond 29th March or a second referendum.
Eurozone: ECB Board member Couere to speak
United States: Pending home sales (January)
Thursday 28th February
New Zealand: ANZ Business Confidence (February)
Australia: Private sector credit (January)
Switzerland: Q4 GDP. Swiss GDP contracted 0.2% qoq in Q3 but analysts predict that the economy avoided a recession with growth forecast at 0.4% qoq in Q4.
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (February)
United States: FOMC members Clarida, Bostic, Harker and Kaplan to speak.
United States: Q4 GDP (preliminary reading). This release was delayed due to the US government shutdown but all indications are that GDP growth slowed further in Q4 with analysts forecasting 2.6% qoq annualised growth – down from 3.4% in Q3 and 4.2% in Q2. Moreover, indicators for January suggest that growth continued to slow in Q1 2019, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s increasingly cautious tone.
Friday 1st March
United States: Personal income, spending and prices (December 2018 and January 2019). The measure of core PCE inflation, which has remained in a 1.8-2.0% yoy range since March, is closely tracked by the Federal Reserve. Analysts forecast an unchanged 1.9% yoy which would likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s view that it is under no pressure to hike rates at this juncture.
United States: Federal Chairperson Powell to speak
Switzerland: Retail sales (January)
Germany: Unemployment rate (February). Economic growth in Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, is seemingly still slowing down but the labour market has remained robust with the unemployment rate stable at 5.0%. A strong labour market alongside slowing GDP growth has also characterised the US, UK and Australian economies.
United Kingdom: Manufacturing PMI (February). The manufacturing sector has been under pressure due to Brexit-related uncertainty and analysts forecast that the manufacturing PMI edged lower to 52.0 from 52.8 in January.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (February, flash estimate). Inflationary pressures have subsided alongside weakening Eurozone growth and lower international oil prices, with headline CPI-inflation falling to 1.4% yoy in January (its lowest level since April 2018). Core CPI-inflation continues to hover around 1% yoy and analysts expect little change in February.
Untitled States: ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)
