It’s another big week for the United States both in terms of macro data releases and policy events. The Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting on Wednesday and either side the US will release consumer confidence, durable goods, Q4 GDP, external trade and personal income, spending and PCE-inflation figures.
Preliminary Q4 GDP data for Germany will provide an insight of how the Eurozone fared in the last quarter of 2020. UK labour market numbers for November-December will also be under the spotlight. On the other side of the world, two planned data releases stand out: Australian CPI-inflation figures for Q4 and December external trade numbers for New Zealand.
Monday 25th January
Eurozone: European Central Bank president Lagarde and board members Panetta and Lane to speak. The ECB, which as expected left its policy rates unchanged last week, did reference the Euro’s level (i.e. strength) as a potential issue in terms of its disinflationary impact.
Tuesday 26th January
Australia: Public holiday
United Kingdom: Labour market data (November-December). The expectation is that the economy shed more jobs in November and that the claimant count rose further in December, partly as a result of the UK having been under a strict social-distancing tiering system and ultimately national lockdown.
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence (January). This US consumer confidence index slumped to 88.6 in December – the low-end of a 85.7-101.4 range in place since April – which has arguably weighed on US household consumption and ultimately headline GDP growth. Consensus forecast is that confidence rebounded to 89.0 in January.
Wednesday 27th January
Australia: CPI-inflation (Q4 2020). Consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation slowed to 0.7% qoq from 1.6% qoq in Q3 and that the year-on-year rate was stable at 0.7%. However, the upside surprise in New Zealand’s CPI-inflation data in Q4 suggests that the risk to Australian CPI-inflation may also be to the upside.
United States: Durable goods orders (December). Growth in headline durable goods orders slowed in October and again in November to just 1.0% mom. Non-defence durable goods (excluding aircrafts) – a proxy for domestic investment – rose half as fast in November, suggesting that US corporates are shunning investment in the face of tepid consumer demand.
United States: Federal Reserve policy meeting, statement and press conference. The Federal Reserve will in all likelihood keep its policy rate unchanged and Chairperson Powell further play down the likelihood of a tapering of the central bank’s QE program. However, the FOMC will also have to factor in a possible, material loosening of fiscal policy in coming months.
New Zealand: External trade data (December). The goods trade surplus has gradually widened in the past two years as a result of reasonably resilient exports and a collapse in imports.
Thursday 28th January
Switzerland: External trade data (December).
Eurozone: European Central Bank board members Enria and Schnabel to speak
United States: GDP (Q4 2020, advance estimate). US macro indicators points to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in Q4 and analysts indeed estimate that the seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of GDP growth slowed to (a still healthy) 4.0% quarter-on-quarter from a record-high 33.4% in Q3.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 28th January).
United States: External trade (December, advance estimate).
Friday 29th January
Eurozone: German GDP (Q4 2020, preliminary data). The consensus forecast is that GDP growth in the European Union’s largest economy slowed sharply from 8.5% qoq in Q3.
Eurozone: German labour market data (December)
United States: Personal income, spending and PCE-inflation (December)
