Again a reasonably quiet week in terms of tier-1 macro data, although the Eurozone and US will publish important inflation data on Friday.
In the UK, MPC members McCafferty and Haldane, who both voted for a 25bp rate hike at last week’s Bank of England policy meeting, are due to speak, as is European Central Bank Board member Coeuré and the usual gaggle of FOMC members in the US. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%.
Event-wise the European Council Leaders’ 2-day meeting on 28-29 June is likely to attract some attention in the context of ongoing Brexit negotiations and pressing issue of immigration.
Monday 25th June
United States: May new home sales
Tuesday 26th June
Eurozone: European Central Bank Board Member Coeuré to speak
United Kingdom: MPC Member McCafferty to speak. McCafferty has consistently voted for a 25bp rate hike in recent policy meetings and is unlikely to change his hawkish rhetoric. If anything he may step up his hawkishness as he will be stepping down after the August policy meeting. Haldane joined McCafferty and Saunders last week in voting for a rate hike but they still need at least two MPC members to join them for an August hike to become a reality.
United States: Voting FOMC member Bostic and (non-voting) FOMC member Kaplan to speak.
New Zealand: May trade balance.
Wednesday 27th June
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney to speak
United States: May durable goods orders. Markets tend to focus on this measure of domestic investment and analysts are expecting core goods orders, which have historically been quite volatile, to have risen 0.4% following a 0.9% jump in April.
United States: Voting FOMC member Quarles and (non-voting) FOMC member Rosengren to speak.
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting. Consensus forecast is for no change in 1.75% policy rate with focus on accompanying policy statement.
Thursday 28th June
Europe: European Union Council leaders’ meeting. The leaders of the 28 EU member states will meet for two days and Brexit and immigration are likely to be high on the agenda. Specifically, the EU is likely to provide an update on the progress (or lack thereof) which the British government has made on defining a post-Brexit deal. German Chancellor Merkel will also try to secure support for a coherent European policy on immigration as she is under pressure domestically to take a more conservative stance.
United Kingdom: MPC member Haldane to speak. The normally neutral Haldane joined the hawkish camp at last week’s policy meeting and voted in favour of a 25bp hike. The MPC’s chief economist may well use this speech to explain his view that the Bank of England needs to hike interest rates.
United States: Voting FOMC member Bostic and (non-voting) FOMC member Bullard to speak.
Friday 29th June
United Kingdom: Q1 GDP growth, final reading. No change expected from previous estimate of 0.1% qoq/1.2% yoy.
Eurozone: June CPI-inflation (preliminary reading). Inflation data have arguably becoming of even greater importance for the ECB (and arguably markets) following last week’s policy meeting at which the ECB made clear that the end of QE would be conditional on data supporting its medium-term expectations for inflation. Consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation rose to 2.0% yoy from 1.9% yoy in May but that core CPI-inflation edged lower to 1.0% from 1.1%.
United States: May personal income, spending and PCE inflation.
